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Hello and happy Friday!

Bitcoin has erased its 2026 gains after a sharp, leverage-driven selloff, while rising yields and persistent inflation continue to tighten financial conditions. This week’s report focuses on separating structural weakness from opportunity, cutting through volatility with 14 charts to highlight what truly matters for positioning.

The crypto section breaks down Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in detail, outlining clear long and short trading scenarios to help you navigate an increasingly selective market environment.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

  • 🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: A breakdown of crypto’s leverage unwind, collapsing futures basis, rising Treasury yields, and why equities are holding up better than digital assets amid geopolitical and inflation-driven uncertainty.

  • 📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: Key technical levels, ETF outflows, liquidation dynamics, and clearly defined bullish and bearish scenarios as BTC tests the lower end of its recent range.

  • 📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: ETH/USD and ETH/BTC structure, continued institutional outflows, critical support and resistance zones, and scenario-based setups as Ether remains rangebound under pressure.

  • 🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: Relative strength versus BTC and ETH, key reclaim levels, SOL/BTC weakness, and liquidation-driven targets that define potential upside or renewed downside risk.

Let’s dive in 👇

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🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:

Bitcoin has erased all of its 2026 gains, falling back to around $87,661 after briefly touching $98,000 earlier this month. The crypto selloff accelerated as $680 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated, underscoring just how quickly sentiment can turn when geopolitical tensions flare and investors rush to safer assets.

Bitcoin Erases Gain for the Year (Source: Bloomberg)

What made Bitcoin's decline particularly worrying was that the recent push toward $98,000 was driven primarily by leverage rather than genuine demand, and basis yields tell that story clearly. After surging above 30% following the ETF launches in early 2024, the 30-day annualized basis has collapsed to low single digits, signaling that speculative enthusiasm has completely evaporated. When traders aren't willing to pay a premium for Bitcoin futures, it typically means the next rally will need much stronger catalysts than just momentum, and right now, those catalysts are nowhere in sight.

Bitcoin Basis Yield (Source: Bloomberg)

In sharp contrast, the S&P 500 climbed toward 7,000 in mid-January, briefly hitting an intraday high of 6,994 before pulling back slightly, supported by solid Q4 earnings with 79% of companies beating estimates and Goldman Sachs forecasting 12% earnings growth for 2026. Stocks surged Wednesday after Trump walked back his European tariff threats, announcing a "framework" deal with NATO on Greenland, which provided immediate relief to equity investors. This divergence between crypto weakness and equity resilience shows that traditional markets are finding support in fundamentals, earnings and economic growth, even as digital assets struggle with their own structural issues.

Stocks Climb on Solid Data as Global Tensions Cool (Source: Bloomberg)

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