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As we head into the final stretch of the year, markets are showing a growing divergence beneath the surface. Global equities continue to grind higher and print fresh record highs, while crypto markets remain under pressure, with Bitcoin trading decisively below its long-term trend and institutional participation fading. This week’s Friday report focuses on these fractures and what they mean for positioning as we approach 2026.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

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Bitcoin continues to trade decisively below its 365-day moving average, a technical breakdown that has historically signaled weak momentum and increased risk of deeper corrective phases. This sustained weakness matters because it challenges the narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value during periods of macro uncertainty. It also highlights how fading institutional flows are directly impacting price action, with confidence failing to recover meaningfully since the October correction. Later in this report, we provide a full Bitcoin deep dive, including trading scenarios for the weekend ahead.

In sharp contrast, the S&P 500 closed at 6,932 on Wednesday, extending its winning streak and posting a near 2% gain on the session. The index has advanced steadily since rebounding from an early-2025, tariff-driven pullback, as investors have largely shrugged off concerns around higher import duties following the administration’s rollback of its most restrictive measures. Strong macro data has reinforced this optimism, with revised Q3 GDP growth coming in at 4.3% and cooling labor costs supporting the view that the Fed has successfully engineered a soft landing. For investors, this reflects a market still willing to pay premium valuations for quality growth, even as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

European equities followed suit, with the Stoxx 600 Index reaching a fresh record near 590. The move was driven in part by broad-based strength in banks and cyclical stocks. Adding to the positive tone, the ECB upgraded its 2025 growth outlook to 1.4% from 1.2%, signaling resilience in domestic demand despite ongoing manufacturing weakness. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s December rate cut to 3.75% helped fuel a late rally in UK equities, further reinforcing the region’s risk-on momentum.

Silver has emerged as one of the year’s standout performers, more than doubling from roughly $25 per ounce in early 2025 to above $70 by late December. The rally was supercharged by a historic short squeeze, accelerating gains in an already tight market. Behind the move lies a powerful mix of surging industrial demand tied to solar and EV production, aggressive speculative positioning amplified by retail participation, and a broader shift toward tangible assets as inflation expectations remain stubborn. Silver’s outsized performance relative to gold underscores how supply constraints and momentum-driven flows can generate extreme moves.

As we head into the final days of 2025, markets are displaying a clear split personality: record highs in global equities, technical breakdowns in crypto, and explosive gains in select commodities. This divergence suggests investors are simultaneously embracing risk-on momentum while maintaining defensive hedges. Looking ahead to 2026, the central question is whether this gap resolves through a broader rally that eventually lifts crypto alongside traditional risk assets, or whether underlying cracks in sentiment deepen and force a more meaningful reassessment of valuations and portfolio allocations.

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