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Hello and happy Wednesday!
Markets are deep in a risk-off unwind this week, as liquidity evaporates and forced selling cascades across speculative assets. While US manufacturing surprised to the upside, this lone bright spot has done little to offset the broader deleveraging sweeping through crypto, tech, and high-beta risk assets.
Despite the chaos, our full research members were able to capitalize on Bitcoin’s sell-off for the second time this week, capturing a 4.9% move from 78,300 to 74,400, as outlined in Monday’s crypto report.
Inside today’s report, we break down the key macro, crypto, and relative strength signals shaping market structure right now. You’ll find 12 charts including Bitcoin long and short trading setups, plus a special coin of the week with actionable trades and risk guidance.
Here’s what’s in today’s report:
📅 Macro Review: A deep dive into the disconnect between resilient US manufacturing data and the violent deleveraging across crypto and tech.
📊 Crypto Market Overview: Clear technical analysis of TOTAL3, OTHERS, and Bitcoin’s breakdown to new lows, and well-defined bullish and bearish scenarios as price trades between key support and resistance.
🔍 Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: An assessment of Bitcoin dominance, alongside improving OTHERS dominance and what this balance says about relative strength and capital flows.
📈 Key Reversal Signals: A focused look at OTHERS/BTC and ETH/BTC, highlighting the exact levels that would confirm either improving altcoin breadth or renewed relative underperformance.
🚀 Chart of the Week: A tactical technical breakdown of ???, outlining precise long and short scenarios, key levels, and risk management considerations within a still-challenging altcoin environment.
Let’s dive in 👇
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📅 Macro Review:
US manufacturing surprised to the upside in January, with the ISM index jumping to 52.6 from December's 47.9, marking the first expansion in a year. New orders and production showed solid gains despite elevated input costs, likely driven by companies front-running tariff fears. This bright spot stands isolated amid broader risk-asset carnage.
US Manufacturing Activity Expands by the Most Since 2022 (Source: Bloomberg)
Bitcoin crashed through $73,000 yesterday, down 42% from its October peak of $126,000 and hitting its lowest level since November 2024. The selloff stems from multiple pressures: escalating US-Iran tensions triggering risk-off flows, a surging dollar making crypto expensive for global buyers, and thin liquidity that turned modest selling into forced capitulation with $2.5 billion in leveraged longs liquidated. Weekend trading exacerbated the collapse as Bitcoin served as the world's 24/7 ATM for panicked investors.
Bitcoin Is Down 40% From Its Peak (Source: Bloomberg)
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