In today’s report, we delve into the implications of these developments on the crypto market, analyze the latest Bitcoin price action, and highlight the technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain factors shaping the current landscape.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

Markets continue to exhibit mixed signals as we enter June, with digital assets showing resilience while traditional fixed income faces structural headwinds. Here's what the charts are telling us.

Despite some early June selling, Bitcoin is holding steady above the key psychological level of $102,000. On-chain data shows continued institutional interest, with large holders (those owning between 100 and 1,000 BTC) adding about 122,330 BTC in recent weeks. The 4-hour chart shows a period of sideways consolidation, with Bitcoin maintaining strong support around $106,000. Although volatility has eased from recent highs, the asset seems to be forming a base that could support potential upside moves. For a detailed look at Bitcoin and our trade setups, see the technical analysis section.

The Treasury market presents a more concerning picture. Thirty-year bond volatility remains elevated above 20%, a level that historically signals significant market stress. With 30-year yields pushing above 5% for the first time since 2007, we're observing what may be a structural shift in the fixed income landscape.

For investors, it may mean that traditional portfolios need to adapt and we could see more institutional capital rotating into alternatives like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The MSCI ACWI, which tracks global equities, has rebounded to new highs since February after a sharp policy-driven dip in April. This bounce came alongside a partial rollback of proposed tariffs, which helped ease some of the uncertainty weighing on risk assets.

Still, the speed of both the selloff and recovery shows how sensitive markets remain to political headlines. Elevated political risk could continue to impact market behavior in the months ahead.

U.S. labor data shows continued moderation with May payrolls adding 139,000 jobs after downward revisions to prior months. The unemployment rate holds steady around 4.2%, while prime-age participation rates remain stable. This data supports the view of a gradually cooling labor market rather than an abrupt deterioration.

That’s important, as it gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility in managing interest rates without risking a hard landing.

Following the recent correction in the crypto market, the Fear and Greed Index has also cooled off. After spending a prolonged period in “greed” territory, indicating an overheated market, the index has now reset to a neutral reading of 55. This shift suggests that market sentiment has normalized, potentially laying the groundwork for a more sustainable and healthy upside.

At the same time, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned negative in recent days, with notable outflows marking the start of the month. The key question now is whether renewed demand will return quickly enough to support a rebound in price, or if this signals the beginning of a deeper correction.

While we currently lean toward the former, expecting demand to stabilize and support further gains, the situation warrants close monitoring.

The chart from Bloomberg shows the European Central Bank’s revised inflation forecasts through 2027. Notably, the ECB now expects inflation to fall even further below its 2% target in 2026, with the updated (blue line) forecast dipping below previous estimates (white line).

This downward revision signals a weaker inflation outlook and suggests the ECB may maintain looser monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated. For Bitcoin and Crypto, this could be a constructive signal.

Persistently low inflation reduces pressure on central banks to tighten policy aggressively, potentially supporting liquidity conditions and further strengthening our bullish thesis.

This week brings several key events for markets, starting with renewed U.S.–China trade talks on Monday, which could influence investor sentiment and policy outlooks. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the release of U.S. CPI inflation data, a critical indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve’s next steps. This is followed by Thursday’s PPI inflation data and the latest initial jobless claims, offering additional insights into inflation pressures and labor market conditions. The week wraps up on Friday with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report and inflation expectations survey, both of which serve as important measures of household outlooks and future price expectations.

Core consumer prices have been in a clear disinflationary trend since mid-2022. The monthly changes peaked around 0.6% in June 2022 and have steadily declined to much lower levels by 2024. The May 2025 Bloomberg survey forecast shows approximately 0.3% month-over-month, which represents a continuation of the overall disinflationary pattern.

This suggests underlying price pressures have moderated significantly from the 2022 highs, though the chart notes that tariff spillover effects may be starting to influence the underlying inflation gauge.

The early June selloff from ~$110k to $102k perfectly aligns with our 10-week leading M2 framework. The M2 money supply contractions in late March/early April predicted this correction with remarkable accuracy. More importantly, M2 growth began accelerating in mid-April, which suggests significant Bitcoin strength into late June and July.

If this correlation continues to hold, we could see Bitcoin surging toward the $120k area by end-Q3 2025. This would be driven by traditional macro liquidity factors rather than crypto narratives, reflecting Bitcoin's evolution into a monetary asset.

Now that we’ve covered the key macro drivers and current sentiment shifts, it’s time to zoom in on what really matters for traders this week: Bitcoin’s price action.

In the following section, we break down the current technical setup and share our trade scenarios for both the bullish and bearish case.

Price is at a pivotal level, and the next move could unfold fast.