Markets opened the week in full macro turbulence. Tariff policy whiplash rattled the dollar, Bitcoin sold off sharply, and bond markets flashed a technically significant inflection point just as risk sentiment slid back toward capitulation.

What does tariff-driven volatility mean for rates, crypto, and global risk appetite? This report breaks it all down with 11 key charts, actionable trade setups, and the scenarios most likely to shape market direction in the days ahead.

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The dominant theme across markets today is tariff uncertainty, and the dollar chart captures the moment it hit. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell sharply, dropping from 1,190 to 1,185, after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariff authority, only for the administration to immediately invoke a separate trade law to impose a new 15% global tariff. Rather than resolving the confusion, the back-and-forth left markets more unsettled than before, and the dollar paid the price.

Bitcoin felt that same anxiety almost instantly. Prices dropped nearly 5% to around $64,900, breaking below the February 12th low and briefly touching $64,000, as risk appetite dried up across the board. The move is a useful reminder that in moments of macro stress, Bitcoin trades like a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven, and remains just as exposed to Washington headlines as equities.

In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are doing something technically significant: bouncing off the 4% level that has acted as a floor repeatedly since 2023. That level now coincides with a long-term ascending trendline, making it doubly important as support. With RSI near 41 and approaching oversold territory, yields appear more likely to bounce from here than break lower, especially with the new tariffs keeping inflation risks alive.

The options market reinforces that view with a contrarian signal worth watching. The one-month call-put skew on 10-year futures has fallen to levels that have historically marked yield bottoms, the same extremes appeared in mid-2022 and early 2024, both of which preceded sharp yield reversals higher. When options markets get this one-sided in their expectation for lower yields, it's typically a sign the bond rally consensus is stretched.

The takeaway is straightforward: tariff chaos is driving volatility across every asset class, weakening the dollar, hitting crypto, and keeping rates pinned at a critical technical level. The options skew adds a warning for bond bulls that the "rates fall" trade may be getting crowded. Until there is real clarity on trade policy, directional conviction in any market will be difficult to hold.

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Bitcoin sentiment remained in extreme fear this past week, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index holding at 8, just three points above its all-time low of 5, set earlier this month. For context, even during the Terra/Luna collapse and the FTX blowup in 2022, the index only bottomed at 6. The speed of the renewed deterioration is as striking as the level itself, the index sat at 62 just one month ago.

ETF flows offered no reassurance. Outflows dominated the entire week, with Friday the only exception at a modest $88 million. Total AUM holds at $94 billion, but with flows consistently negative and no sustained inflow streak in sight, there is little evidence that institutional money is stepping back in with any conviction.

Sentiment at these extremes has historically preceded recoveries, but it has also preceded further pain. Without a clear shift in ETF flows and some stabilization in sentiment, the path of least resistance remains downward.

The week opens with markets absorbing Trump's newly announced 15% global tariff, after the Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff regime over the weekend. Monday's open will be the first verdict from markets. Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Jobless Claims on Thursday keep the economic pulse in check, while Friday's PPI inflation data closes the week. With tariffs pushing directly on producer prices, a hot PPI print would deal a real blow to the rate cut narrative.

Nvidia reports Wednesday after the bell and is the single most important event of the week. An earnings beat is widely expected, Polymarket prices it at 95%. Markets want Q1 revenue guidance above $75 billion and confidence that AI infrastructure demand is holding strong. Any sign of hesitation around export restrictions or margins will be punished quickly. 

The US has its largest Middle East military presence since 2003, with carrier strike groups and hundreds of aircraft positioned near Iran. Talks last week failed, and one Trump adviser put the odds of military action in the coming weeks at 90%. A strike would send oil sharply higher through Strait of Hormuz disruption, roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through it.

With eleven Fed speakers scheduled across the week on top of everything else, headline risk is constant in every direction. Nvidia Wednesday and PPI Friday are the flashpoints to watch, but Iran is the wildcard that could override everything. Stay close to the news and treat leverage carefully.

Bitcoin sold off sharply early Monday morning, briefly breaking below the $65,500 level before reclaiming it hours later, it currently trades at $66200. Price remains within the broader $65,500–$72,000 range, though the inability to push higher meaningfully raises the risk of a downside breakout if $65,500 fails to hold.

The one-month liquidation heatmap reinforces this caution. Downside liquidation clusters build around $54,700 and extend as far as $45,800, while upside liquidity sits around $80,000 but is notably thinner, making bearish continuation the more plausible path from here.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin holds $65,500, with long setups attractive on a successful bullish retest of that level, targeting $72,000, invalidated on a loss of $65,500. A clean reclaim of $72,000 opens further longs on a bullish retest, targeting $74,400 and $78,300.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin breaks and fails to reclaim $65,500, with short setups on a confirmed bearish retest of that level targeting $60,700, invalidated on a reclaim. A break below $60,700 opens further downside, with additional short opportunities targeting $58,400, also invalidated on a reclaim of the broken level.

TOTAL3 also sold off this morning, briefly breaking below key support at $695B before crawling back above it, it currently sits at $698B, barely holding the level. The next resistance above is $743B, and a break below $695B opens a move toward $645B.

ETH/BTC continues to drift sideways in a compressed range just below the 0.0299 level it broke under on February 1st, unable to reclaim it. Next support sits at 0.026, roughly 9% lower from the current 0.0288.

Investor Implications: The altcoin market remains fragile and directionless. TOTAL3 is pinned between $695B and $743B, and neither level has broken decisively yet, leaving the path of least resistance sideways. ETH/BTC compounds the caution: its continued inability to reclaim $0.0299 confirms that capital within crypto is rotating toward Bitcoin rather than spreading into the broader ecosystem. Until TOTAL3 clears $743B and ETH/BTC shows genuine signs of stabilization, investors are best served staying selective and resisting the urge to chase altcoin bounces in what remains a bearish structural trend.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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