Bitcoin faces a challenging market landscape as we kick off a new trading week, with Trump’s tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd adding to macroeconomic uncertainty. In today’s report, we’ll dive into the latest price movements, critical technical levels, and the key on-chain and macroeconomic factors shaping the market.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

Last week was eventful for both traditional markets and crypto, with Bitcoin facing rejection after consolidating at $88,000 throughout the trading week and selling off sharply over the weekend, now trading at $82,000. After gaining 1.2% on Monday and Tuesday, the S&P 500 hit resistance at $5,780 and dropped 3.65% from Wednesday to Friday, currently sitting at $5,580 ahead of the U.S. market open later today. 

Amidst all the fear and uncertainty, we’d like to share two metrics plotted against the S&P 500, published by fellow analysts at Global Macro Investor, that potentially suggest a bottom may be near. These two charts highlight how extreme bearish sentiment has historically coincided with major bottoms in the S&P 500.

The first chart shows the percentage of bearish respondents in the AAII Sentiment Survey. Spikes above 60%, marked in pink, have often aligned with key turning points in the market, signaling capitulation before a rebound. The second chart tracks consumer expectations for stock prices to decline over the next 12 months. Similarly, extreme readings above 44% have historically marked major buying opportunities.

Both indicators suggest that when investor pessimism reaches extreme levels, the market is often near a bottom, as seen in past corrections and bear markets.