Good Morning and welcome to a new week!
Despite the 90-day tariff pause by the US, trade tensions with China remain strained, and the overall situation continues to be uncertain and unpredictable.
In todayâs report, we delve into the implications of these developments on the crypto market, analyze the latest BTC price action, and highlight the technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain factors shaping the current landscape.
Hereâs what weâll cover today:
đ Market Review: A review of last weekâs price action and key events in traditional markets and crypto.
đ Current Market Conditions: Market Sentiment Check and Deep Dive into important data.
đ Key Events Ahead: Upcoming macroeconomic influences, and potential catalysts.
đ Technical Analysis: Key technical levels, areas of interest, and potential scenarios for the week ahead.
đ Altcoin Insights: Notable performers, sector strength, and potential catalysts.
Letâs dive in!
đ Market Review:
The US-China conflict is intensifying, with tech bans, tariffs, and threats to supply chains causing widespread economic impact. This isn't just a trade issue, it's a clash of global powers. Both the US and China are escalating, each believing they hold the stronger position. The US has banned chip exports to China, while China is considering rare earth export restrictions and shifting oil imports away from the US.
US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield and DXY (Source: Tradingview)
Bond yields surged while the dollar sold off, a concerning divergence that triggered a basis trade unwind and rattled markets. Since Trumpâs announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, however, conditions have started to calm.Â
As we highlighted last week, this move underscores that keeping rates low remains Trumpâs main objective. Climbing yields pressured the administration to step back from tariffs to avoid deeper market disruption. At this point, the bond market isnât just responding to policy, itâs driving it.
Gold continues to outperform (Source: Tradingview)
For investors, the outlook is volatile. Key opportunities include long positions in gold, silver, rare earth producers, and energy stocks, while shorting semiconductors, retail stocks reliant on China, and the broader equity market through puts or inverse ETFs could be profitable strategies. With supply chain disruptions and rising inflation, a new era of geopolitical risk and market uncertainty is emerging, and entirely passive investment strategies may no longer be reliable.
Bitcoin surged early this morning (Source: Bloomberg)
Early this morning, Bitcoin broke out of the recently established range between $83,000 and $86,000, where it had been trading for 9 days, and surged to $87,600. It now remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can confirm this breakout or fall back into the previous trading range.
