Bitcoin is starting the week with a slight recovery attempt, trading around $84,632. This comes as traditional markets react to the U.S. administration's unexpected move to soften its trade stance by introducing key tariff exclusions on products like smartphones, computers, and chip-making equipment. This policy shift could signal a recalibration aimed at mitigating domestic economic pressures.

In today’s report, we delve into the implications of these developments on the crypto market, analyze the latest BTC price action, and highlight the technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain factors shaping the current landscape.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

The U.S. trade policy landscape has shifted again, stirring up volatility across financial markets. Just days ago, the Trump administration announced a sweeping 125% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports. However, in a surprising move, it granted a 90-day exemption for key electronics, including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. This temporary relief provided a boost to major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia, which rely heavily on Chinese supply chains.

President Trump's sudden tariff reversal highlights his key priority: keeping interest rates low. After insisting for weeks that there would be no delay to the 125% China tariffs, even as markets lost trillions, Trump changed course just hours after bond yields spiked.

This was triggered by the unwinding of a large-scale basis trade, which added volatility and pushed bonds and stocks down simultaneously. With interest rates spiking and safe havens like bonds failing to hold, pressure mounted quickly. On April 7, reports of a 90-day tariff pause surfaced. Though initially denied, it was confirmed two days later. Trump later admitted he had been closely watching the bond market, calling it “very tricky.”

The message is clear: rising rates forced the administration to back off on tariffs to avoid further market turmoil. Gold jumped nearly $200, the dollar weakened, and investors shifted to safe havens. The bond market isn’t just reacting to policy anymore, it’s now shaping it. 

Bitcoin retested Monday’s lows at $74,000 on Wednesday and moved higher following the tariff pause announcement, reclaiming both the key level at $81,400 and the trendline, a scenario we outlined in Friday’s market report, allowing our readers to profit from a 5.6% move.