Bitcoin is starting the week with a slight recovery attempt, trading around $84,632. This comes as traditional markets react to the U.S. administration's unexpected move to soften its trade stance by introducing key tariff exclusions on products like smartphones, computers, and chip-making equipment. This policy shift could signal a recalibration aimed at mitigating domestic economic pressures.

In today’s report, we delve into the implications of these developments on the crypto market, analyze the latest BTC price action, and highlight the technical, macroeconomic, and on-chain factors shaping the current landscape.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

The U.S. trade policy landscape has shifted again, stirring up volatility across financial markets. Just days ago, the Trump administration announced a sweeping 125% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports. However, in a surprising move, it granted a 90-day exemption for key electronics, including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. This temporary relief provided a boost to major tech companies like Apple and Nvidia, which rely heavily on Chinese supply chains.

President Trump's sudden tariff reversal highlights his key priority: keeping interest rates low. After insisting for weeks that there would be no delay to the 125% China tariffs, even as markets lost trillions, Trump changed course just hours after bond yields spiked.

This was triggered by the unwinding of a large-scale basis trade, which added volatility and pushed bonds and stocks down simultaneously. With interest rates spiking and safe havens like bonds failing to hold, pressure mounted quickly. On April 7, reports of a 90-day tariff pause surfaced. Though initially denied, it was confirmed two days later. Trump later admitted he had been closely watching the bond market, calling it “very tricky.”

The message is clear: rising rates forced the administration to back off on tariffs to avoid further market turmoil. Gold jumped nearly $200, the dollar weakened, and investors shifted to safe havens. The bond market isn’t just reacting to policy anymore, it’s now shaping it. 

Bitcoin retested Monday’s lows at $74,000 on Wednesday and moved higher following the tariff pause announcement, reclaiming both the key level at $81,400 and the trendline, a scenario we outlined in Friday’s market report, allowing our readers to profit from a 5.6% move.

Markets are still feeling the weight of uncertainty, with sentiment remaining low and investor confidence subdued. The Fear and Greed Index, an objective tool we use to gauge market sentiment, currently sits at 31, still in fear territory. These levels were last seen in August of last year, just before the impulsive move that pushed Bitcoin above $100,000.

Total net inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been negative throughout the past week, reflecting weak demand from both institutions and retail investors. It's important to remember that many of these ETFs are traded like traditional equities, meaning they are often subject to the same inflow and outflow dynamics as stocks. During periods of global market stress, outflows are common and do not necessarily reflect a long-term shift in conviction. In fact, Bitcoin ETFs offer valuable insight into risk-on and risk-off behavior. When interpreted correctly, they can help investors better time exposure and adjust portfolios accordingly.

Economic data released last week was generally very good, U.S. inflation came in softer than expected, pointing to easing price pressures. Headline inflation fell 0.1% in March, while markets had expected a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year, it rose 2.4%, below the 2.6% forecast.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.1% month-over-month versus the 0.3% expected. The annual core rate came in at 2.8%, slightly under the 3% forecast. The data could support the case for Fed rate cuts later this year, creating a more favorable environment for both stocks and Crypto.

This week brings a series of key U.S. economic data releases. On Tuesday, markets will watch the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for signs of regional economic activity. Wednesday follows with two major indicators, retail sales and industrial production, which will offer insight into consumer spending and overall economic output. Thursday is packed with data, including weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, building permits, and housing starts, all of which will help gauge the strength of the labor market and housing sector. Markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.

In today’s high-volatility, low-liquidity environment, macroeconomic signals are more important than ever and bonds are at the center of it all. Even for crypto traders who don’t trade fixed income, monitoring bond markets is essential. They serve as a leading indicator for shifts in interest rates, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment.

Recent movements in bond yields have been sharp and fast, reflecting growing uncertainty and heightened sensitivity to economic data and policy expectations. These shifts can have a direct impact on liquidity conditions and investor appetite for risk, which in turn influence crypto market flows. Ignore them at you own risk!

Bitcoin printed a double bottom at $74,400 last week, with the second low forming on Wednesday. Following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, price surged and reclaimed the key level at $81,400. However, it was initially rejected at the red trend line and dropped back below $81,400. On Friday, in a second attempt, price successfully reclaimed both the key level and the red trend line, a positive development that allowed our readers to capitalize on a profitable trade.

Both the trend line and the $81,400 support remain crucial. To maintain short-term bullish momentum, price may retest these levels, but ideally should not break below them again.

The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows clusters of leveraged liquidations just below $74,400 and above resistance at $86,000, but the size of these clusters is relatively small. With only around $250M in potential liquidations, this amount is not necessarily significant for Bitcoin’s market cap and typical trading volumes, and therefore unlikely to cause major volatility by itself.

Bullish scenario: In a bullish setup, we want to see Bitcoin hold above $81,400. A retest of that level would be acceptable as long as the reaction is strong, offering renewed long opportunities targeting resistance at $86,000 and range highs at $88,800, with invalidation if price loses support. If $86,000 is broken without a retest of $81,400, a direct continuation toward range highs appears likely.

Bearish scenario: In a bearish case, Bitcoin would move lower and fail to hold above $81,400. This would open up short opportunities on a bearish retest of that level, with invalidation if $81,400 is reclaimed and downside targets at $78,000. If that level breaks, a retest of the range lows at $74,400 becomes the next likely scenario.

After reclaiming the key level at $716B, the TOTAL3 altcoin index continued to move higher over the past week and is now testing resistance at a major area of interest around $780B. This remains a critical level to reclaim, as altcoins have been trading in a strong structural downtrend since December, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. For market structure to shift and a bullish reversal to take shape, TOTAL3 would need to reclaim support at $850B and establish a higher high.

As we noted last week, while many altcoins are sitting at attractive levels, particularly for investors with a mid- to long-term outlook, further downside cannot be ruled out at this stage. We remain cautious and are not yet focused on low-cap altcoins or high-risk setups. 

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We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

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