As the market cycle unfolds, altcoins are trading at critical levels. In today’s update, we’ll take a closer look at the broader market landscape to assess whether momentum is shifting and what that could mean for the days ahead.

Additionally, we’ll analyze key macroeconomic factors to offer a well-rounded outlook on what’s next for altcoins.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

The global macro landscape presents a complex picture of recalibrating expectations across rates, equity markets, and trade policy. Key themes include shifting Federal Reserve expectations, persistent long-end Treasury volatility and continued equity and crypto market strength.

Market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts has undergone significant recalibration through the first half of 2025. The swaps market has dramatically shifted from pricing over 100 basis points of cuts by year-end in April to less than 50 basis points currently. This represents a fundamental reassessment of the Fed's policy trajectory, with the average cuts priced year-to-date settling around the 50bp mark.

The 30-year Treasury yield continues to trade in a fragile range near 5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about fiscal sustainability and term premium adjustments. Despite recent retreat from May highs above 5.15%, the long-end remains under structural pressure from deficit concerns and changing international demand dynamics.

BNP Paribas warns that the popular "steepener trade“, betting on long-dated yields rising faster than short-term rates, may be overcrowded and vulnerable to reversal. Their analysis suggests market bias toward curve steepeners is at decade highs, potentially creating conditions for a "pain trade" if positioning unwinds.

The S&P 500's trajectory toward all-time highs reflects underlying optimism about corporate earnings and economic resilience. The index has recovered strongly from spring volatility, approaching the 6000 level and suggesting continued appetite for risk assets and cryptocurrencies despite macro uncertainties.

U.S.-China trade tensions remain elevated, with the weighted average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods holds near 49%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods hover around 31%. Meanwhile, officials from both nations are reportedly discussing a framework for a trade deal following two days of talks in London, aiming to revive a temporary truce and resolve key issues like rare‑earth exports.

A formal agreement or announcement is expected very soon, pending approval from Presidents Trump and Xi and could lead to volatility in the markets.

Now let’s dive into the part you’re really here for: the charts, key levels, trade scenarios and what’s next for Bitcoin and Altcoins. 🔥 

Data-driven analysis and unparalleled market intelligence, exclusively at Sandman Research.

Bitcoin continues hovering around the $109,300 level, the previous all-time highs from January that are currently acting as a key price level. While price managed to reclaim this mark twice in May, on both occasions it fell back below after less than three days.

Today marks the third consecutive day of trading above this level again, and it remains to be seen whether or not this time is different. We are closely monitoring lower time frame price action throughout these days.