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After an explosive August rally, Bitcoin enters September, traditionally the weakest month for equities and crypto alike. While volatility is expected, this could create high-probability setups for disciplined traders looking to accumulate top-tier digital assets.

Recent U.S. employment data has shown mixed signals, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. With the September rate decision on the horizon, this week’s labor and economic data will be pivotal in shaping both macro sentiment and crypto price movements. 

Meanwhile, gold’s push toward all-time highs signals increasing institutional demand for hard assets, forces that also support Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital store of value.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s get into it.

Bitcoin's explosive rally through August has been nothing short of spectacular. Our long-standing bullish thesis has materialized exactly as anticipated, with the cryptocurrency proving its resilience and growth potential in an environment of shifting Federal Reserve policy. This performance reinforces our conviction that Bitcoin remains one of the most compelling investment opportunities in today's macro environment.

Entering September, historical patterns reveal this as traditionally the weakest month for global equity markets, with both the S&P 500 and MSCI World Index averaging declines over the past decade. This seasonal weakness typically stems from post-summer trading resumption and portfolio rebalancing ahead of year-end. While near-term volatility is expected, we view any September weakness as an opportunity to accumulate quality digital assets ahead of what we expect to be a strong fourth quarter.

Recent U.S. employment data presents a mixed picture, with some indicators suggesting moderation while others remain resilient. This evolving employment landscape creates uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, making this week's comprehensive labor data particularly significant for crypto markets. As we detail in our economic calendar analysis later in this newsletter, the Fed's September decision will likely depend on these data points, creating potential volatility and opportunity across risk assets including Bitcoin and digital currencies, depending on how the employment picture ultimately develops.

Gold's climb toward all-time highs reflects growing concerns about Federal Reserve independence and long-term monetary stability. The precious metal's strength signals institutional demand for alternative stores of value amid political pressures on central bank policy.

This development strongly validates our broader thesis on hard assets and alternative monetary systems. Bitcoin benefits from the same macro forces driving precious metals higher while offering superior portability, divisibility, and technological advantages.

As Bitcoin continued showing weakness and price trended lower, the crypto fear and greed index tracking market sentiment also continued its descent, dropping to a new low reading of 40 on August 30th, briefly tapping into fear territory, before recovering back to 47 in neutral.

Price is still holding above major levels, with BTC recently reclaiming the 109,300 price level. This makes the pullback in the fear and greed index and the current neutral readings appear healthy, providing room for sustained upside in the coming weeks if price can trend higher. Should the index move into deep fear or extreme fear territory while price expands, risks of being overbought and facing a correction would rise, something not currently in play.

Bitcoin spot ETF flows remained mostly positive throughout the past week, with outflows only on Friday, coinciding with the sharp price selloff. Heading into the new week, sustained and strong positive inflows would be the key signal of robust demand from traditional finance and Wall Street, reinforcing trust in the asset as markets face an uncertain week of critical economic data.

The most critical event for crypto this week is Friday’s U.S. Jobs Report, which will be the clearest signal for the Fed’s September rate cut decision. With Powell tying policy to incoming data, labor market strength or weakness will directly shape rate expectations.

In addition, Tuesday’s Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will give an early read on demand conditions and industrial activity. Wednesday’s JOLTS job openings and Beige Book will refine the view on labor demand and overall economic momentum. Thursday’s ADP payrolls, jobless claims, and services PMIs will provide key insights into employment and growth ahead of Friday’s report.

What to watch in Friday’s Jobs Report:

Crypto investors should closely monitor these indicators, with particular focus on the Jobs Report, as they will drive market volatility and shape the Fed outlook. This week’s labor and growth data will be pivotal in identifying opportunities and risks for crypto traders heading into September.

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Just this morning, Bitcoin rose quickly and reclaimed the $109,300 key level, a pivotal price point with historical significance that we have been watching closely. This remains a crucial level to hold and trade above for continued strength and the potential for bottoming out and reversing higher.

The two-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap currently shows clusters of significant liquidation volume on both sides of the current price. A notable cluster sits at $107,100, just below the most recent swing low, while multiple targets appear to the upside, ranging from $113,700 to $117,800. With major economic data releases ahead this week, heightened volatility is expected, confirmed by the heatmap and the likelihood of liquidity being tapped on both sides.

Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, we want to see Bitcoin hold above the $109,300 key level and show strength. From here, price could trend higher toward the next levels. Long opportunities arise on a successful bullish retest of $109,300, targeting $111,900, with invalidation if price falls below entry.

Bearish Scenario
In the bearish case, Bitcoin fails to hold the current level, faces rejection, and trends lower again. Short opportunities may emerge on a successful bearish retest of $109,300, targeting $106,100, with invalidation if price reclaims the entry level.

The collective altcoin market has been moving sideways into the end of August, with TOTAL3 struggling to hold above the key $1.05 trillion mark. It has not yet broken decisively higher toward $1.13T, but also avoided a drop back toward $950B. Ethereum remains a leading asset, despite a 13% setback since reaching all-time highs earlier this month.

Ethereum has formed a bearish structure on its USD price chart, while the ETH/BTC pair shows a more sideways pattern, holding relatively well against Bitcoin after reclaiming the 0.0404 level again despite losing it twice.

We are not yet rotating into low-cap or high-risk plays, instead keeping focus on top altcoins and high market-cap names. Downside risk remains as we enter September, as a historically weak month for all assets, and potential corrections could quickly erase gains if low caps overreact, as they usually do.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

Stay ahead of the curve with Sandman Research.