Hey there, and happy Friday!
This week, the S&P 500 surged to fresh all-time highs above 6,500, marking a 30% rally since April’s lows near 5,000. Adding to the excitement, the U.S. government has started publishing GDP data directly on public blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This institutional-level adoption underscores crypto’s evolving role in the financial system, validating long-held narratives about blockchain utility.
Amid these developments, macro conditions remain key. While the Fed started cutting rates in the second half of 2024, long-term Treasury yields climbed, signaling ongoing inflation pressures. With the September rate decision looming, this divergence between monetary easing and yield spikes continues to shape liquidity flows into risk assets, leaving potential upside for crypto in the medium term.
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Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: The S&P 500 hits all-time highs and the U.S. GDP is now on-chain, highlighting a strong risk-on environment. While long-term yields rise, ongoing monetary easing supports broader liquidity, leaving crypto well-positioned if macro conditions remain favorable.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: BTC faces renewed pressure after rejection at $113,400, dropping toward $109,300. ETF inflows remain positive, while the two-week liquidation heatmap shows clusters above current prices, hinting at potential upside.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: ETH continues lower after failing to reclaim $4,670, approaching $4,242. On its BTC pair, key levels have broken, but strong ETF demand supports momentum. Liquidation clusters suggest downside risk, though trend reversals remain possible.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: SOL reclaimed $206, showing relative strength versus BTC and ETH. Price is now retesting this level, with liquidation clusters above $220 and below $180 hinting at volatility ahead.
Let’s dive in 👇
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:
The S&P 500 has surged to fresh all-time highs, breaking above the 6,500 mark after rallying more than 30% from April’s lows near 5,000. This relentless momentum highlights not just the resilience of equities, but also the broader risk-on environment that tends to lift alternative assets like crypto. Historically, periods of strong performance in traditional markets often coincide with inflows into digital assets, as both benefit from improved liquidity and investor appetite for risk.
S&P 500 Tops $6,500 on Economic Surprise (Source: Bloomberg)
Amid this backdrop, perhaps the most striking development this week is the U.S. government’s decision to distribute GDP data on public blockchains, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. What was once speculative infrastructure is now being adopted at the highest levels of economic reporting. This shift represents institutional validation of crypto’s role as financial plumbing, turning long-held theses about blockchain utility into reality.
US Puts GDP Data on the Blockchain in Trump Crypto Push (Source: Bloomberg)
Macro conditions remain equally pivotal. While the Fed began cutting rates in the second half of 2024, long-term Treasury yields (10Y and 30Y) rose instead, underscoring lingering inflation concerns and the reality that markets, not central banks, ultimately dictate borrowing costs. With the September rate decision approaching, this divergence matters: higher yields can restrain liquidity flows into risk assets, but continued monetary easing still supports the broader narrative of looser financial conditions, leaving scope for medium-term upside.
US Debt Costs Don’t Always Move in Line With the Fed (Source: Bloomberg)
The historical record reinforces why these debates matter so much. In the 1970s, White House pressure for lower rates eroded Fed independence, fueling inflation that spiraled toward 20%. Only when the Fed reasserted its autonomy did price stability return, paving the way for decades of growth.
Fed Independence Led to Era of Low Inflation (Source: Bloomberg)
Today, renewed political scrutiny of monetary policy has revived questions about the central bank’s ability to act independently, a key risk for markets where credibility, liquidity, and long-term yields are all on the line.
Now, we dive into the crypto markets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana.
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