Markets have shifted sharply over the past week as easing geopolitical tensions and falling inflation expectations sparked a powerful rally across global equities. Meanwhile, crypto markets remain trapped in consolidation, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all struggling to establish meaningful momentum.

This week’s report breaks down these diverging market dynamics with 14 detailed charts covering the market impact of the emerging Iran peace narrative, shifting inflation expectations, and Bitcoin’s ongoing battle within a critical trading range. The crypto section dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups with clearly defined entry points, targets, and invalidation levels.

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The most consequential market driver of the past 24 hours was a single Trump statement. On Thursday, the President abruptly called off planned U.S. military strikes on Iran and declared that a peace deal was within reach, and the ripple effects were felt across every major asset class almost simultaneously. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.3%, its worst single session in over a month. The logic is straightforward: war is good for the dollar, and peace is not.

That shift in sentiment was nowhere more explosive than in Seoul. South Korea's Kospi surged as much as 8.5% on Friday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each jumping over 9%, as investors rushed back into the chipmakers they had been avoiding for months due to war-driven uncertainty. Korea's semiconductor giants, critical to the global AI supply chain, had been treated as collateral damage from the conflict, so the prospect of peace amounted to a mass repricing.

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The Iran story is also reshaping the interest rate outlook in ways that matter enormously for every investor. With oil prices falling sharply on ceasefire hopes, two-year U.S. inflation swap rates, a derivatives market gauge of where inflation is headed, have pulled back toward the 2.5% range, approaching levels that last accompanied the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in 2025. The Iran war had been the single biggest obstacle to Fed rate cuts, pushing energy-driven inflation higher and forcing policymakers to shelve easing plans.

That brings us to equities, where the S&P 500 chart captures the entire arc of this story. The index climbed steadily through 2025, stalled and sold off sharply into the low 6,300s when the Iran conflict erupted in early 2026, then staged a powerful recovery to new all-time highs above 7,500. On Thursday alone, the S&P 500 gained 1.75% while the Nasdaq surged 2.54%, led by semiconductor names including Micron, up 11.7%, and Intel, up 9.3%. The market is telling investors that it believes the worst is behind us.

The critical caveat is that Iran has yet to formally confirm any deal, and this conflict has produced false dawns before. The prudent framework right now is to watch oil prices as the real-time signal: a sustained break below $95 per barrel would confirm that the inflation threat is receding, that the Fed's path toward cuts is reopening, and that this rally has fundamental legs, not just headline-driven hope.

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Bitcoin continues trading between $60,700 and $65,500, remaining unable to break out of this range. Notably, it has retested the $60,700 technical level multiple times as support, although it has not managed to push back toward $65,500, instead pulling back earlier in the move and revisiting support once again. Currently, BTC is trading around $63,000.