A weakening U.S. dollar, rising oil prices, and growing signs of stress in options markets are creating a more cautious backdrop for risk assets. Meanwhile, crypto continues to trade in a fragile technical position, with Bitcoin holding key support while most altcoins remain locked in broader bearish trends.

Inside today’s report, you'll find 12 charts covering Bitcoin's battle at major technical support, the latest developments in Bitcoin and altcoin dominance, and a tactical Chart of the Week featuring Zcash (ZEC), which is approaching a key technical level that could present both long and short opportunities.

Let’s dive in 👇

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June's inflation report cooled more than expected: headline CPI fell 0.4% on the month, the biggest drop since 2020, pulling annual inflation down from 4.2% to 3.5% as gas prices tumbled. But core inflation, which strips out food and energy, barely moved, so the "good news" was mostly a gas-price story, not a sign that underlying price pressures are fading. That distinction matters, because the Fed cares far more about core inflation than the headline number.

Stocks liked the news anyway, extending a bounce after a rough patch earlier in July, though today's gain was modest next to the sharper rallies seen after past CPI surprises. The pattern here is choppy, swinging hard on every data point, a sign that investors have little conviction and are trading meeting to meeting rather than committing to a clear direction.

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Bonds are telling a more skeptical story. The two-year Treasury yield has climbed since April and now sits above the Fed's own policy rate, a reversal from last year's rate-cutting trend. That's the market signaling it no longer expects cuts anytime soon, and is starting to worry about a hike instead, as oil prices spike again following the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire.

That worry shows up directly in Fed futures pricing: traders now see an 83% chance of a hold at the July 29 meeting, down from 93% just a month ago, with a 17% chance now priced in for a rate hike. A month ago, a hike was barely on the table, so this is a real, if modest, hawkish shift.

Bottom line: June's soft CPI print looks reassuring on the surface, but it reflects a ceasefire-driven dip in gas prices that's already reversing. Bond yields and Fed-hike odds are moving the other way, both flagging renewed inflation risk tied to the Iran conflict. Investors should treat today's calm as fragile, not a signal that the inflation fight is over.

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Bitcoin pushed higher so far this week, closing in on the 65.5k technical level once again and now trading at 64.6k, its closest level since reclaiming the 60.7k technical level. Notably, until 65.5k is reclaimed, BTC remains range-bound.