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Hello and happy Monday!
As we move into the final stretch of 2025, markets are navigating a far more complex backdrop than just a week ago. With systemic risks emerging globally, particularly from Japan, and investors reassessing policy expectations into 2026, liquidity and positioning are once again becoming the dominant forces shaping price action across risk assets.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
📈 Market Review: Bitcoin continues to lag after a sharp Q4 correction, while rates markets signal growing concern that policy may have stayed restrictive for too long. Japan has emerged as a new source of global instability as rising yields and a weakening yen threaten broader spillovers.
🔍 Current Market Conditions: Crypto sentiment remains deeply depressed, with Fear & Greed hovering near extreme fear. ETF flows have stayed mostly negative, reinforcing a risk-off stance among institutional investors, while BTC price action continues to compress within a wide but well-defined range.
👀 Key Events Ahead: With the Christmas holiday approaching, liquidity will be thin, but several important data releases still carry weight. Inflation, growth, and consumer data early in the week could influence expectations around future Fed easing and drive outsized reactions across crypto and broader risk markets.
📊 Technical Analysis: Bitcoin has reclaimed the 88,800 level after multiple failed attempts, forming a potential base for a move back toward 92,000 if support holds. Liquidation data shows upside liquidity building near key resistance, while downside risk remains present near lower range support.
🚀 Altcoin Insights: Altcoins continue to underperform, with TOTAL3 losing a critical support level that must be reclaimed to unlock broader upside. ETH/BTC remains a relative bright spot, holding above key support.
Let’s dive in 👇
