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As we move through the week, markets are adjusting to a sharp rise in volatility across macro and crypto. Bitcoin’s dramatic drop-and-recovery, weakening U.S. manufacturing data, and a potentially softening dollar have all reshaped investor expectations heading into December. At the same time, equities continue to show resilience despite elevated uncertainty, and crypto markets are testing major technical levels that will define the next move. With macro currents shifting and risk appetite fluctuating, this week becomes pivotal for positioning into year-end.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Bitcoin whipsawed traders over the past week, plunging from our technical level at $92,000 to a low near $84,000 on December 1st before sharply recovering back toward $93,000 and reclaiming the 92,000 resistance. This price action highlights how sensitive Bitcoin remains to shifts in risk sentiment and suggests the asset is still moving within a broader consolidation after its prior run-up. For investors, the key question now is whether this rebound reflects renewed buying interest, or simply a technical relief rally before another leg lower. We break down the signals pointing in each direction later in this report.

U.S. manufacturing activity weakened further in November, with the ISM Purchasing Managers Index contracting at its fastest pace in four months and new orders also sliding deeper below the 50 expansion line. These readings confirm that factory activity continues to struggle despite earlier optimism about U.S. economic resilience. With momentum softening into year-end, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of a December rate cut, an outcome that could reduce pressure on risk assets and influence crypto markets through improved liquidity expectations.

The U.S. dollar has extended a strong uptrend since September, rising from the 1,190 area to roughly 1,220 on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index as investors favored dollar strength amid mixed global economic data. This has weighed on risk assets broadly. However, Deutsche Bank now expects the dollar to retreat back toward its Q3 levels around 1,185–1,190, a move that would likely provide meaningful tailwinds for equities, commodities, and digital assets. A turn in dollar momentum would signal a shift in broader market conditions and could help reaccelerate the risk-on behavior seen earlier this year.

U.S. equities also showed resilience in November, with the S&P 500 reversing nearly all of its 5% October drawdown and reclaiming the 6,800 region. This V-shaped recovery reflected strong dip-buying and continued confidence despite more mixed economic signals. Even so, the yellow-shaded area on the chart illustrates the elevated volatility and the market’s ongoing difficulty establishing a clean directional trend. With valuations stretched and macro uncertainty rising, whether this rally can extend meaningfully will depend on earnings support and improving data.

Taken together, weakening manufacturing, a potentially softening dollar, equity resilience, and crypto volatility, markets appear to be entering a transition phase as 2025 closes out. Investors should watch closely to determine whether the recent pickup in risk appetite is sustainable or merely year-end positioning before a potentially more challenging backdrop in early 2026.

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