Iranian strikes trigger massive crypto liquidations as Bitcoin plunges from $106K to $98K, but our subscribers were prepared. While traders lost $827 million in 24 hours, we positioned our readers to profit from both waves of the sell-off.

This week's geopolitical chaos has created the perfect storm: oil spiking toward 2025 highs, gold testing $3,300, and the dollar showing temporary strength despite long-term weakness. Smart money is rotating, and we're tracking every move.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

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Global markets continue to navigate heightened geopolitical tensions following weekend U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, while investors grapple with the lingering effects of April's "Liberation Day" tariffs. 

Oil jumped after the US struck Iran's nuclear sites, stoking concerns that energy supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted. Global benchmark Brent surged to $77.035 a barrel, before paring much of that gain in heavy trading.

The Strait of Hormuz remains at the center of supply risk concerns, as highlighted by our chart showing China's 33% dependence on oil transiting through this critical chokepoint. This vulnerability extends across Asian economies, with Japan (11%), South Korea (11%), India (13%), and other Asian nations (15%) collectively representing 72% of oil flows through the strait.

Gold continues to demonstrate its safe-haven credentials, with our third chart showing steady appreciation from approximately $2,500 per ounce in December 2024 to current levels around $3,300. Despite recent minor weakness, Gold fell to 3,362.24 USD/t.oz on June 23, 2025, down 0.20% from the previous day.

Over the past month, Gold's price has risen 0.47%, and is up 44.25% compared to the same time last year, the precious metal remains well-positioned near April's record highs.

The U.S. dollar presents a mixed picture, with recent geopolitical tensions creating a short-term safe-haven bid while underlying structural weakness persists. Our chart reveals this dichotomy clearly: while the dollar has spiked following the weekend attacks on Iran as investors seek refuge, the longer-term trend since April's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shows continued dollar weakness alongside equity market volatility.

The broader chart comparing dollar performance with the S&P 500 since December 2024 illustrates the dollar's persistent weakness, declining from around 100 to approximately 90 even as equity markets have shown resilience.

The crypto market has witnessed over $827 million in liquidations, with Bitcoin experiencing its worst single-day performance, plummeting 3.3% to $103,556 as geopolitical tensions triggered massive liquidation cascades exceeding $1.16 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

At Sandman Research, our proprietary risk assessment models enabled us to prepare our subscribers for the dual-phase sell-off that caught most market participants off-guard.

We issued timely alerts ahead of both the initial decline from $106,100 to $102,000 and the subsequent drop to $98,800, protecting our readers from the devastating liquidation wave that followed.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped significantly over the past few days. While it was still in greed territory with a reading of 61 on June 12th, we are now firmly in fear territory, with the index at 37.

This shift aligns with Bitcoin’s weekend sell-off, and it now remains to be seen whether this marks an oversold signal that could indicate a temporary bottom and reversal in both price and sentiment, or if we’ll remain in this zone for longer. Notably, with the current price of $102,000, this is the highest Bitcoin has ever traded while the Fear and Greed Index sits in fear territory.

Meanwhile, total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows continue their positive streak, with no negative outflows since June 6th. This is a bullish signal, pointing to underlying strength and investor trust despite peak uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical stress.

Investors appear confident for now, and we’ll be closely tracking this metric throughout the week.

Bitcoin continues to closely track the global M2 money supply, with a 10-week lead offering the most consistent correlation. When looking at the current chart, we can observe a convergence forming: M2 is trending higher while Bitcoin undergoes a correction.

While this divergence is worth monitoring to evaluate the ongoing validity of the M2 lead model, it's important to note that a similar pattern occurred during the initial M2 breakout in November 2024. At that time, M2 moved higher first while Bitcoin initially trended lower before eventually following the upward move.

Another noteworthy observation: just before Bitcoin's breakout in late 2024, geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel reached their peak. Specifically, tensions escalated in late September, with the most critical moment occurring on or just after September 27, when Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, widely seen as Iran’s key proxy in Lebanon.

That event, along with the subsequent correction in Bitcoin, is also marked on the chart and serves as a reference point for analyzing sentiment and macro correlation.

Perhaps we’re seeing this playbook unfold once again, with the U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend potentially marking the peak in geopolitical stress. If history repeats, this could set the stage for a sharp market reversal from here.

This week is packed with key U.S. economic events that could impact market sentiment. On Monday, we’ll see the release of the Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, and Existing Home Sales, along with media coverage related to Middle East developments and their effect on stocks. Tuesday brings the House Price Index and the all-important Consumer Confidence report, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, which markets will be watching closely. On Wednesday, New Home Sales are due, along with a second round of testimony from Chair Powell. Thursday will be data-heavy, featuring Q1 GDP, weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales. The week wraps up on Friday with the release of Core PCE Inflation and the latest Consumer Sentiment data, both closely watched indicators for inflation expectations and economic outlook.

While Core PCE inflation on Friday will be a key focus, one of the most significant and timely economic releases this week will be the initial jobless claims data, which has shown concerning upward momentum in recent weeks. Claims held steady at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, above the 242,000 expected, with the four-week moving average rising to 240,250, the highest since August 26, 2023.

This softening in the labor market comes at a critical time. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, noting solid economic growth, low unemployment, and somewhat elevated inflation. However, if labor market data continues to deteriorate, it could point to a broader economic slowdown and may influence the Fed’s outlook on future rate cuts, especially as markets remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility.

Now let’s dive into the part you’re really here for: the charts, key levels, trade scenarios and what’s next for Bitcoin and Altcoins. 🔥 

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