Good morning and welcome to this weekâs altcoin market update.
The crypto market is navigating a crucial macro inflection point. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.25â5.50%, despite rising inflation expectations and growing political pressure from Trump.
Bitcoin dominance is rolling over, altcoin metrics are nearing breakout levels, and historical patterns suggest we may be on the verge of a new phase in the cycle.
Hereâs what weâll cover today:
đ Macro Review: Record ETF inflows, dollar weakness, and inflation gridlock are aligning to drive capital into crypto. Weâll explore how these macro shifts are setting the foundation for altcoin momentum.
đ Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin remains stuck below $118,400, while TOTAL3 reclaims the $1T mark and altcoins flirt with key resistance. We break down the price structure and what needs to happen for the next leg up.
đ Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: BTC Dominance is rolling over after hitting resistance, while OTHERS.D slips below 2023 lows. These rotation signals often front-run the strongest phases of altseason. We look at where we are now.
đ Key Reversal Signals: ETH/BTC is entering a bullish structure while OTHERS/BTC tests major resistance. We'll highlight the levels to watch and how this setup echoes early 2017 and 2021 rotations.
đ Chart of the Week: ??? holds a new floor at $0.40 after a 130% spike. This setup within the cross-border and RWA narrative could be a leading signal for sector-specific rotation.
Letâs dive in!
đ Â Macro Review:
As we head into todayâs pivotal Fed meeting, markets expect another âwait and seeâ from Chair Powell. CME FedWatch shows a 97.9% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 5.25â5.50%. Just 2.1% expect a 25bps cut.
Target Rate Probabilities for 30 Jul 2025 Fed Meeting (Source: CME FedWatch)
Even looking one month ahead, only 18.6% see cuts beginning, reinforcing the view that rate cuts are delayed despite growing political pressure from Trump.
Dollar Jumps Against Peers After US EU Trade Agreement (Source: Bloomberg)
The recent +1.78% rally in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a positioning-driven bounce, triggered by short-term optimism around tariff de-escalation. Structurally, nothing has changed, $35T in U.S. debt, global de-dollarization pressure, and long-term inflation risk all remain in play. We view this as a counter-trend move within a broader dollar downtrend.
Powellâs Chances of Survival (Source: Bloomberg)
After peaking above 25%, betting markets now price Powellâs chance of removal at ~15%. The narrative of imminent political fallout has softened. This reduces immediate uncertainty, but the political shadow remains, reinforcing the appeal of non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
Braced for Transitory Tariff Inflation (Source: Bloomberg)
One-year inflation swaps approach 3%, two-year above 3.3%, markets expect the inflation impulse to persist. With tariffs embedding price pressure into forward expectations, the Fed is stuck: canât hike, but also canât cut. That gridlock supports Bitcoin as a superior inflation hedge.
Gold Trapped in Holding Pattern (Source: Bloomberg)
Goldâs price action has underwhelmed. After peaking near $3,500/oz earlier this year, it has moved sideways, failing to sustain any breakout despite rising inflation expectations and macro uncertainty. This lack of follow-through contrasts sharply with Bitcoinâs strength in the same environment./hq1
