The crypto market is navigating a crucial macro inflection point. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.25–5.50%, despite rising inflation expectations and growing political pressure from Trump.

Bitcoin dominance is rolling over, altcoin metrics are nearing breakout levels, and historical patterns suggest we may be on the verge of a new phase in the cycle.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

As we head into today’s pivotal Fed meeting, markets expect another “wait and see” from Chair Powell. CME FedWatch shows a 97.9% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at 5.25–5.50%. Just 2.1% expect a 25bps cut.

Even looking one month ahead, only 18.6% see cuts beginning, reinforcing the view that rate cuts are delayed despite growing political pressure from Trump.

The recent +1.78% rally in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a positioning-driven bounce, triggered by short-term optimism around tariff de-escalation. Structurally, nothing has changed, $35T in U.S. debt, global de-dollarization pressure, and long-term inflation risk all remain in play. We view this as a counter-trend move within a broader dollar downtrend.

After peaking above 25%, betting markets now price Powell’s chance of removal at ~15%. The narrative of imminent political fallout has softened. This reduces immediate uncertainty, but the political shadow remains, reinforcing the appeal of non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.

One-year inflation swaps approach 3%, two-year above 3.3%, markets expect the inflation impulse to persist. With tariffs embedding price pressure into forward expectations, the Fed is stuck: can’t hike, but also can’t cut. That gridlock supports Bitcoin as a superior inflation hedge.

Gold’s price action has underwhelmed. After peaking near $3,500/oz earlier this year, it has moved sideways, failing to sustain any breakout despite rising inflation expectations and macro uncertainty. This lack of follow-through contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s strength in the same environment./hq1

After failing to break out after reclaiming the $118,400 key level, Bitcoin fell back below and returned inside our range. Price is now finding support around the key level of $116,900 and is moving toward $118,400 again. So far, no breakout has been successful.

TOTAL3 has encountered resistance at the important $1.05T key level and has trended lower as well, with the next key support coming in at $950B. If TOTAL3 manages to climb higher, the next key level after $1.05T comes in at the previous cycle highs of $1.13T.

Similar to Bitcoin and TOTAL3, OTHERS are also finding resistance around their key level of $300B, so far unable to break higher and now moving lower again.