Markets are entering a more challenging phase as the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance continues tightening financial conditions across global markets. Treasury yields are pushing higher, the dollar is strengthening, inflation expectations remain elevated, and equities are beginning to show signs of strain after a powerful rally from recent lows.

Inside today’s report, you’ll find 12 charts covering Bitcoin’s rejection at a major resistance level, continued weakness across the altcoin market, and a tactical Chart of the Week featuring a high-conviction setup at a critical technical support zone.

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The euro has broken below 1.14 against the dollar, its weakest level since June 2025, and the culprit is straightforward. The Fed's hawkish turn, fuelled by expectations of further rate hikes, has supercharged the dollar, leaving even the ECB's own rate hike this month unable to provide the euro with any meaningful support.

That Fed hawkishness traces back to an inflation problem that isn't going away. USD inflation swaps from 1 year all the way out to 30 years are now clustered around 2.4%, a flat curve that signals markets no longer see today's price pressures as temporary. US headline CPI hit 4.2% in May, its highest since April 2023, driven by a 23%-plus spike in energy prices following the Iran conflict.

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Equities had been ignoring all of this, rallying nearly 20% from April's war-driven lows to push the S&P 500 above 7,500. That optimism is now fraying. Stocks fell sharply on June 23rd, the S&P 500 down 1.44%, the Nasdaq off 2.21%, as a global semiconductor rout, triggered by South Korea's chip index collapsing nearly 10%, swept through US markets and pushed the VIX to 19.49.

The bond market had seen this coming. The 2-year Treasury just auctioned at its highest yield since January 2025, above 4%. The Fed's June meeting scrapped its projected 2026 rate cut entirely and flagged the possibility of a hike, sending the 2-year yield to a fresh 2026 high of 4.23%. At those levels, safe government debt is once again a serious competitor to equities.

The thread connecting all four charts is the same: a hawkish Fed is tightening financial conditions across every asset class simultaneously, pressuring the euro, anchoring inflation expectations, lifting yields, and finally beginning to chip away at equity valuations. The post-war relief rally looks largely priced in. What comes next will require considerably more selectivity.

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Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $65,500 technical level on Monday afternoon and faced a near-perfect rejection there, once again confirming the importance of this resistance and validating short positions on a bearish retest. So far, BTC has declined 4.5% from that level and is now approaching the next lower technical level and our downside target at $60,700.