Markets enter the new week facing a complex macro setup: emerging market earnings are showing signs of renewed strength, while falling oil prices provide short-term inflation relief following the US–Iran ceasefire agreement. At the same time, rising Treasury yields, a weakening yen, and growing fiscal concerns continue to tighten financial conditions and keep risk assets under pressure.

This report breaks down the key forces shaping markets this week: the return of strength in Asian equities, the impact of lower energy prices on inflation expectations, and Bitcoin’s continued consolidation as institutional demand remains cautious.

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For the first time since 2022, emerging market companies are beating earnings expectations. Asian tech is leading the charge, SK Hynix and Samsung beat Q1 estimates by 43% and 16%, with TSMC adding a 5.7% upside surprise. For investors long underweight EM, this is the fundamental green light they've been waiting for.

Oil tells the diplomatic story of the moment. Brent has collapsed from $120 in May to around $78 today after the US and Iran struck an initial agreement to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal is a 60-day ceasefire framework with Iran's nuclear program still unresolved, so prices could reverse fast, but for now, cheaper energy is a welcome disinflationary shock.

The yen, however, keeps weakening. USD/JPY is back above 160, driven by a simple but powerful dynamic: a 300 basis-point rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan is sustaining an estimated $500 billion in yen carry trades. Tokyo has already spent roughly $63 billion on intervention with little lasting effect. A disorderly unwind of those carry positions remains one of the biggest systemic risks in markets right now.

US Treasury yields spiked at this morning's cash open, with the 10-year approaching 4.5%. The culprit is fiscal: the CBO estimates the "One Big Beautiful Bill" adds $3.4 trillion to the federal debt by 2034, and bond markets are demanding compensation. Higher long-end yields tighten financial conditions across the entire economy.

The four charts together capture a market at a genuine crossroads, EM earnings recovering, oil deflating, but the yen cracking and US borrowing costs climbing. The Iran deal and the Bank of Japan are the two variables most worth watching from here.

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Sentiment remains weak, with the Fear & Greed Index currently at 21, keeping the market in fear territory. While this is a slight improvement from last week’s reading of 19, investor confidence remains fragile as market participants continue to approach risk assets cautiously.

Bitcoin ETF flows remained a headwind throughout the past week, recording another week of net outflows. With no trading on Friday due to the U.S. market holiday, the broader trend of capital leaving Bitcoin investment products remains intact, highlighting continued weakness in institutional demand.

Although sentiment has stabilized somewhat, persistent ETF outflows suggest that conviction remains limited. Sustained inflows will likely be needed before confidence can recover more meaningfully.

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The week ahead features several key economic releases that could influence expectations around growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Markets will begin by focusing on the June S&P Global PMI data on Tuesday, which will provide an updated snapshot of business activity across the manufacturing and services sectors.

Attention then shifts to May New Home Sales on Wednesday before Thursday delivers two of the week's most important releases: the latest PCE Inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and the final reading of U.S. Q1 2026 GDP. Together, these reports will offer valuable insight into both inflationary pressures and the strength of economic growth.

The week concludes with June Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data on Friday. Taken together, inflation trends and growth data will remain the primary drivers of market expectations, with potential implications for equities, bonds, and crypto markets in the near term.

Despite not retesting the next lower technical level at 60,700, Bitcoin has started to move higher again and is now approaching the previously lost technical level at 65,500. Bitcoin has effectively traded sideways between these two levels, without a notable breakout in either direction so far.

The two-week liquidation heatmap shows leveraged liquidation clusters positioned primarily below the current price, with key clusters at 62,000 and 60,600. On the upside, leverage remains relatively thin, with the next notable target zone around 67,300, just above the recent highs.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $65,500 with conviction, offering long opportunities targeting the $72,000 technical resistance level, with invalidation on a move back below the reclaimed level. Should price first retest $60,700, long opportunities may also emerge there targeting a move back toward $65,500.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin fails to reclaim $65,500, with short entries becoming valid on a confirmed bearish retest of that level, targeting $60,700 and invalidated on a reclaim above resistance. A decisive break below $60,700 would then open further downside toward $58,300, similarly invalidated on a reclaim back above the broken support level.

Looking at the bigger picture, TOTAL3 is also moving higher again, although it remains capped below the $695B technical level and continues to appear relatively heavy. This metric is expected to follow Bitcoin rather than lead, especially while BTC remains confined within its current trading range.

ETH/BTC is still trading sideways around 0.027. Since bouncing off the 0.026 technical level on June 14th, ETH/BTC has failed to move decisively higher, signaling Ethereum's continued inability to gain relative strength against Bitcoin. As a result, altcoins remain heavily dependent on Bitcoin's direction and continue to show limited independent momentum.

Taken together, the current structure suggests that broader altcoin momentum remains weak, and sustained trend reversals or bullish phases for altcoins are not yet expected. We continue to favor maintaining a larger cash position, with exposure focused primarily on BTC and, selectively, a few top-10 altcoins.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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