Good morning and welcome to this week’s altcoin market update.
Markets are digesting last week’s September FOMC meeting, which reshaped interest rate expectations. Overnight index swaps now price a neutral rate just below 3% by mid-2027, slightly higher than pre-FOMC expectations, signaling a recalibration of market assumptions.
This week, we break down the macro environment, market action, altcoin dynamics, and highlight key levels that could define the next directional moves.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
📅 Macro Review: FOMC shifts expectations, neutral rate edges slightly higher, 10-year Treasury yields retreat to ~4%, gold ETF inflows surge. Conditions supportive of risk assets and alternative stores of value post-rate cuts.
📊 Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin reclaimed $111,900 this morning, now range-bound between 111,900–113,300. TOTAL3 trades sideways below 1.09T, OTHERS remains supported around 300B. We outline bullish and bearish setups for Bitcoin over the coming days.
🔍 Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: BTC.D rejected at 58.59% while OTHERS.D bounced from 7.80% to 8.16%, highlighting altcoin outperformance potential. Scenarios detail when altcoins could gain relative to Bitcoin or face renewed pressure.
📈 Key Reversal Signals: ETH/BTC broke 0.03723, OTHERS/BTC fell to 2.59M after reclaiming the golden trendline. We explore bullish and bearish possibilities for continuation or deeper pullbacks.
🚀 Chart of the Week: ??? consolidates inbetween major levels. We outline long and short setups, while monitoring for potential breakout opportunities.
Let’s dive in.
📅 Macro Review:
The September FOMC meeting has reshaped interest rate expectations, with overnight index swaps now pricing in a neutral rate just below 3% by mid-2027, slightly higher than pre-meeting expectations. This reflects a recalibration of market assumptions, as investors digest the Fed’s guidance on future policy.
Fed Neutral Rate Edges Higher After September Meeting (Source: Bloomberg)
Ten-year Treasury yields have retreated to around 4% after peaking near 4.8% earlier this year. This decline creates a more favorable environment for risk assets, as lower borrowing costs and reduced real yields make speculative investments and alternative stores of value more attractive, exactly the conditions supportive of crypto and precious metals following last week’s rate cuts.
Treasury Yield Falls After Four-Day Advance (Source: Bloomberg)
Gold-backed ETFs have seen impressive growth, with total holdings climbing from roughly $2,600 in late 2023 to nearly $3,000 today, closely tracking spot gold’s rally toward $3,800. This sustained institutional accumulation reflects growing concerns about currency debasement and the search for inflation hedges. As gold ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin spot ETFs are likely to benefit from similar institutional adoption and portfolio diversification strategies.
Gold Rally Powers On as Investors Pile into ETFs (Source: Bloomberg)
The Bitcoin-gold relationship chart underscores our bullish conviction. While gold currently leads this cycle, Bitcoin has historically caught up and often outperformed traditional safe havens during phases of strong institutional adoption.
Gold Is Leading Bitcoin Now But Historically BTC Catches Up (Source: Tradingview)
The combination of dovish Fed policy, rising safe-haven demand, and declining real yields creates an ideal backdrop for alternative monetary assets, positioning Bitcoin to potentially follow gold’s lead while delivering superior returns over the medium term.
We’re now entering the crypto section of this report, where we professionally analyze various key charts to assess Bitcoin and altcoin strength.
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