Markets enter the new week at a critical macro inflection point: geopolitical tensions are easing following a US–Iran peace agreement, driving a sharp pullback in oil prices, while at the same time structural inflation pressures and global bond dynamics continue to reinforce a prolonged higher-rate environment. The result is a market still caught between short-term relief and longer-term macro tightening.

This report breaks down the key forces driving markets this week: the unwind of war-driven inflation trades, shifting global bond flows as Japanese yields rise, and Bitcoin’s continued struggle to stabilize after a historic drawdown.

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Gold miners were supposed to be the war trade. They weren't. Since the US-Israel strike on Iran in late February, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index has fallen roughly 31% while the S&P 500 gained 8%. In an inflationary war, rate fears overwhelmed the safe-haven bid, and miners, crowded after a 155% surge in 2025, saw that positioning brutally unwound.

That rate pressure connects directly to Japan, where 30-year government bonds now yield close to 7% when hedged into dollars, comfortably above US Treasuries. With the Bank of Japan hiking into war-driven inflation, Japanese institutional investors are finding better returns at home, quietly threatening the flow of capital into US debt that global markets have long relied on.

The oil chart shows why all of this happened. Brent surged from $60 to nearly $120 as the Strait of Hormuz, one fifth of global oil supply, stayed shut for over three months. Yesterday's US-Iran peace deal has already pulled prices back toward $83, with a flood of stranded tankers expected to hit the market once the agreement is fully implemented.

That energy shock reignited inflation just as central banks were approaching the finish line, pushing the Fed's first rate cut back to early 2027 at the earliest. Both developed and emerging markets now face the same uncomfortable reality: the higher-for-longer rate environment investors thought was behind them has been extended.

The immediate relief from the peace deal is real, but the structural damage lingers. Inflation won't cool overnight, Japanese bond dynamics will keep upward pressure on US long rates, and the Fed remains in no hurry. The risk premium is unwinding — the macro recalibration is not.

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Sentiment remains deeply pessimistic, with the Fear & Greed Index currently sitting at 19, keeping the market firmly in extreme fear territory. While this marks a modest improvement from the recent low of 9, investor confidence remains heavily depressed following Bitcoin’s sharp correction and prolonged period of weakness. The slight recovery in sentiment suggests panic selling has eased somewhat, but market participants continue to approach risk assets with considerable caution.

Bitcoin ETF flows showed the first meaningful sign of stabilization in over a month. On June 12th, the products recorded approximately $85M of net inflows, ending a prolonged streak of consecutive outflow sessions that had persisted since mid-May. Despite this improvement, total Bitcoin ETF assets under management remain relatively subdued at around $103B, reflecting the significant capital that has left the products during the recent correction.

While the return of inflows is an encouraging development, a single positive session is not yet enough to confirm a broader shift in institutional demand. Sentiment remains firmly in extreme fear, and sustained ETF inflows will likely be needed before confidence can begin rebuilding more meaningfully. For now, markets continue to show early signs of stabilization, but conviction remains limited.

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The week ahead is all about the Federal Reserve, with markets closely watching Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair on Wednesday. Before that, investors will receive May Industrial Production data on Monday, Housing Starts on Tuesday, and Retail Sales on Wednesday, providing fresh insight into economic activity and consumer demand.

The main event arrives with the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. Markets currently expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.75%, placing the focus squarely on Warsh’s commentary and any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy. Thursday brings the June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, while U.S. markets remain closed on Friday for Juneteenth.

Taken together, Fed policy expectations and incoming economic data will remain the primary drivers of short-term direction across equities, bonds, and crypto markets this week.

After retesting the $60,700 technical level on June 10th, Bitcoin has trended higher consistently, reaching the next major technical target at $65,500 and fulfilling the bullish trade scenario early Monday. This allowed readers to capitalize on a gain of nearly 8% within just five days. Price is currently trading slightly above the reclaimed level at around $65,600.

The two-week liquidation heatmap shows leveraged liquidation clusters positioned on both sides of current price. Notably, a significant concentration remains around $60,000, making it a potential downside target in the event of a rejection at current levels. On the upside, liquidation clusters extend from $67,000 up to roughly $72,000, supporting the case for further trend continuation.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin needs to hold above $65,500 with conviction, offering long opportunities targeting the $72,000 technical resistance level, with invalidation on a move back below the reclaimed level. Should price first retest $60,700, long opportunities may also emerge there targeting a move back toward $65,500.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin fails to hold above $65,500, with short entries becoming valid on a confirmed bearish retest of that level, targeting $60,700 and invalidated on a reclaim above resistance. A decisive break below $60,700 would then open further downside toward $58,300, similarly invalidated on a reclaim back above the broken support level.

Looking at the bigger picture, TOTAL3 moved higher decisively and followed Bitcoin’s move upward. TOTAL3 also managed to reach the next higher target level at $695B and is currently trading right around it. In contrast to BTC, TOTAL3 did not bounce off the lower technical level but instead started its rebound earlier. Now, the next higher target for TOTAL3 sits at $743B.

ETH/BTC is still trading sideways around the 0.026 technical level. The pair saw a short spike on Sunday, but then pulled back again, following the negative trend of recent days and moving back toward 0.026. ETH/BTC’s inability to move higher shows that BTC took the spotlight in the recent move, and altcoins are simply following.

Taken together, the current structure suggests that broader altcoin momentum is still weak, and sustained trend reversals or bullish phases for altcoin holders are not expected. We continue to favor holding a larger cash position with only BTC and possibly a few top 10 altcoins. 

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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