Hello and happy Friday!
This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: Quick recap of crypto & traditional markets this week, also covering key macroeconomic factors affecting risk assets.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: Key support & resistance zones for the weekend. ETF flows and their impact on BTC’s price action. Liquidation heatmap. Where the next opportunity could arise.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: Is Ethereum showing strength or lagging compared to the rest of the market? ETF flows and other metrics. Key technical levels & trading setups.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: Solana’s trend structure compared to BTC & ETH. Crucial levels for continuation or correction and potential trade scenarios.
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting while signaling that two 25 basis point cuts remain likely by the end of 2025. However, the updated dot plot showed a slightly more cautious long-term stance, with policymakers scaling back the extent of expected rate reductions in 2026 and 2027. Markets reacted swiftly to the shift in tone.
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Swap markets now price in approximately 46 basis points of easing by year-end, down sharply from over 100 basis points anticipated just two months ago. This adjustment reflects investor recognition of the Fed’s increasing reluctance to loosen policy too quickly in the face of persistent inflation.
Still, longer-term market pricing suggests confidence that rates will eventually return to more neutral levels, with terminal rate projections for the end of 2026 hovering around 3.25%.
The Market Expects More Cuts Next Year Than This (Source: Bloomberg)
Meanwhile, oil prices have posted a third consecutive week of gains as tensions in the Middle East escalate, particularly involving Israel and Iran. Brent crude is trading near $85 per barrel, and broader energy markets are showing signs of geopolitical risk repricing.
Reports of direct or indirect diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran have done little to ease concerns, with tanker insurance premiums and freight rates rising, indicating market sensitivity to further disruption.
Oil Heads For Third Weekly Gain on Mideast Tensions (Source: Bloomberg)
As we enter the second half of 2025, the macro environment is increasingly shaped by the interplay of dovish monetary policy signals and persistent inflationary risks. Yet with financial conditions gradually easing and liquidity conditions improving, the setup continues to favor risk assets.
Bitcoin and crypto markets in particular may benefit disproportionately, as investors look toward asymmetric upside in high-beta assets that historically outperform during early easing cycles.
Now let’s dive into the part you’re really here for: the charts, key levels, trade scenarios and what’s next for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. 🔥
Data-driven analysis and unparalleled intelligence, allowing you to make smarter market decisions!
