Hello and happy Friday!
This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: Quick recap of crypto & traditional markets this week, also covering key macroeconomic factors affecting risk assets.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: Key support & resistance zones for the weekend. ETF flows and their impact on BTC’s price action. Liquidation heatmap. Where the next opportunity could arise.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: Is Ethereum showing strength or lagging compared to the rest of the market? ETF flows and other metrics. Key technical levels & trading setups.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: Solana’s trend structure compared to BTC & ETH. Crucial levels for continuation or correction and potential trade scenarios.
Let’s dive in!
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:
Our long-held dollar weakness call continues to materialize, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index hitting its lowest level since 2022. The DXY has fallen to 98.02, down nearly 3% over the past month, just shy of breaking through the psychologically important 1200 level on the Bloomberg index.
Dollar Touches Lowest Level Since 2022 (Source: Bloomberg)
The underlying drivers we've highlighted for months remain intact: mounting U.S. fiscal deficits, unprecedented money printing, and systematic currency debasement policies. These structural headwinds continue pushing investors toward Bitcoin and other hard assets as hedges against fiat currency devaluation.
We see this dollar decline as proving bullish for both crypto and global liquidity flows, as weaker dollar conditions historically boost risk assets and emerging markets as capital flows seek higher yields abroad.
Oil Spikes After Israel Struck Iran (Source: Bloomberg)
Israel's strike on Iran sent crude oil spiking over 6% in dramatic fashion. Brent futures rocketed from $70 to over $74 per barrel between June 11-13, with some contracts briefly touching $75.79.
The energy market's violent reaction reflects genuine supply concerns from the Middle East, where 30% of global seaborne oil trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical premium likely also adds another layer of complexity to central bank policy decisions.
US Equity Risk Premium Near Lowest in Two Decades (Source: Bloomberg)
The S&P 500's earnings yield minus 10-year Treasury yield has compressed to near zero, the lowest in two decades. This historically dangerous signal suggests stocks offer virtually no compensation for risk versus bonds. Previous periods at these levels (2000, 2007-2008) preceded major corrections.
The convergence of our dollar weakness thesis with geopolitical tensions and compressed risk premiums creates a complex but navigable environment for those positioned correctly in the ongoing fiat currency debasement trade.
Now let’s dive into the part you’re really here for: the charts, key levels, trade scenarios and what’s next for Bitcoin and Altcoins. 🔥
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