This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

Following Bitcoin’s breakout above $95,000, a long trade setup outlined in Monday’s Bitcoin and Crypto Market Report has been triggered, and a position has been entered accordingly. 

With Bitcoin currently trading more than 2% above the entry level, we recommend implementing prudent risk management: consider taking partial profits and adjusting stop-loss orders to the entry price. 

This approach helps secure gains, eliminates downside risk, and positions us to benefit from any further upside while effectively locking in a profitable, risk-managed trade.

Congratulations to those who followed the setup, this is exactly the kind of high-conviction, risk-controlled opportunity we highlight in our full premium reports. If you’re currently on the free list, consider upgrading to access all live trade scenarios and real-time market guidance.

Recent economic data suggests that early reactions to U.S. trade policy changes have had unintended consequences. In anticipation of future tariffs, many companies accelerated imports, leading to a temporary surge that resulted in a record trade deficit. This distorted GDP figures, dragging growth down by an estimated 4.8 percentage points. 

At the same time, key freight indicators are showing signs of contraction, with traffic at the Port of Los Angeles dropping 35% in just one week, a sharp signal of slowing business activity and tightening supply chains.

Investor sentiment has also shifted notably. A recent survey of J.P. Morgan’s largest clients revealed that 61% expect stagflation, only 1% still believe in a strong growth scenario, and recession odds are priced at over 60% on major prediction markets. Meanwhile Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, steadily approaching the $100,000 milestone.

Traders now anticipate four rate cuts this year, underscoring growing concern over the macroeconomic outlook. The Federal Reserve is caught between conflicting priorities: cutting rates could reignite inflation, while holding them steady risks deepening the slowdown.

Meanwhile, Trump has attempted to deflect responsibility for the economic drag, despite reports that he has privately urged companies like Amazon not to raise prices and granted exceptions to certain automakers affected by tariffs. While he continues to claim that China is bearing the cost of tariffs, evidence shows the burden is largely falling on U.S. businesses and consumers. 

On the ground, economic stress is becoming more visible. Logistics companies like Werner Enterprises are laying off workers, and ADP jobs data is showing weakness even in typically resilient sectors like healthcare and education. Apple’s efforts to diversify its supply chain away from China have also hit roadblocks; Bloomberg reports that relocating meaningful production to India could take up to eight years due to infrastructure and quality challenges.

China, too, is feeling the strain, with collapsing manufacturing orders and no new negotiations scheduled as both sides remain entrenched. 

With the macro outlook wrapped up, it’s time to dive into the part everyone’s really here for: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

After trading sideways around the $95,000 mark over the past week, Bitcoin managed to break above this key level yesterday, surging as high as $97,400. So far, price has held above $95,000 and is currently trading at $96,600, where a lower timeframe support level appears to be forming. The next key levels to watch are $92,000 as support on the downside and $98,800 as resistance on the upside.