This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

The U.S.–China trade dispute is entering a critical phase. While markets have responded positively to what appears to be a softening in U.S. tariff policy, China shows no signs of shifting its stance. Instead, Beijing remains consistent and prepared, viewing Washington’s mixed signals as a sign of strategic weakness rather than diplomacy.

Recent reversals, from initial threats of 245% tariffs down to 60-65%, paired with conflicting statements about the relationship between Trump and President Xi, have created confusion. In China, these developments are interpreted not as negotiation tactics, but as political instability.

China has little incentive to yield. The U.S. economy remains heavily dependent on Chinese imports, particularly in retail and rare earth materials. Supply chain disruptions are already visible, with falling shipping volumes, reduced port activity, and early signs of inventory shortages. Major U.S. retailers have warned of incoming price increases. Even if tariffs were lifted today, the damage to supply chains and economic trust would not be reversed quickly.

There are no active negotiations underway, despite public claims. U.S. officials have acknowledged that meaningful trade agreements take years, not weeks. In the meantime, China and the EU are strengthening ties, exploring systems that reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. A weaker U.S. dollar appears to be a key objective for the U.S. administration, seen as a way to correct trade imbalances and ease global financial conditions.

This weakening dollar trend has been reflected in recent market movements. Gold has surged, benefiting from its role as a hedge against dollar debasement, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty. Bitcoin has also rallied and may be starting to decouple from tech stocks, showing similar safe-haven characteristics amid concerns over U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.

There is also growing speculation that global central banks and institutions are gradually reducing exposure to U.S. assets, selling Treasuries and dollars, while increasing allocations to euros, yen, gold, and possibly Bitcoin. 

This trend is supported by recent price action, particularly stronger performance in German bunds relative to U.S. Treasuries. These developments point to a potential shift in global reserve preferences and increasing geopolitical tensions impacting currency and fixed income markets.