This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

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Financial markets continue to navigate the dual pressures of fiscal sustainability concerns and policy uncertainty, with this week bringing dramatic swings in the tariff landscape that underscore the administration's weakened negotiating position.

Wednesday saw a federal court block President Trump's sweeping tariffs under emergency powers law, only to have a federal appeals court temporarily reinstate them Thursday. This judicial ping-pong has profound implications beyond the immediate trade impact.

We are now back to the previous status, just with much weaker leverage for Trump in negotiations. The court's initial ruling that the president exceeded his authority in imposing broad tariffs creates lasting uncertainty around the administration's signature economic policy, potentially emboldening trading partners to dig in during future negotiations.

The first chart confirms our thesis from last week: government spending trajectories remain unsustainable with no signs of fiscal restraint. Cumulative federal outlays since Trump's inauguration continue tracking above equivalent periods in previous years, maintaining the relentless pace that's driving bond market vigilantism.

The second chart shows two-year yields sinking on signs of economic weakness, falling from above 4.02% to 3.99%. This move, combined with ongoing long-end yield pressure, steepens the curve and suggests markets are pricing in potential Fed easing amid growth concerns while simultaneously demanding higher term premiums for fiscal risks.

Gold's rise as the dollar weakens (chart 3) validates our safe haven thesis. The inverse relationship demonstrates continued portfolio rebalancing away from dollar-denominated assets amid fiscal and policy uncertainty.

Bitcoin's behavior continues evolving as a macro hedge alongside traditional safe havens.

The final chart showing foreign holdings of US Treasuries declining to around 30% from peaks above 50% represents a structural shift we've been highlighting. This trend forces greater reliance on domestic buyers and money managers, reducing the cushion that once allowed the US to finance deficits at artificially low rates.

The court battle over tariffs creates a precedent that constrains future trade policy implementation, potentially forcing the administration toward more traditional legislative channels that require congressional approval. Meanwhile, the bond market's continued pushback against fiscal trajectories suggests we're entering a period where market forces, rather than political discourse, will increasingly dictate policy boundaries.

The combination of legal constraints on trade policy and market constraints on fiscal policy creates a significantly more restrictive operating environment for the administration's economic agenda. As one trader noted, "Every day there's new news. The time frames are short" a sentiment that captures the heightened volatility in both policy and market dynamics we're witnessing.

Now let’s dive into the part you’re really here for: the charts, key levels, trade scenarios and what’s next for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. 🔥 

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