This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by tariffs, macroeconomic shifts and critical technical signals. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and key factors to watch going forward.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below the critical 100 level, now down more than -8% year-to-date. That’s a major macro signal: a weakening dollar historically supports risk assets like crypto, and this breakdown could mark the beginning of renewed capital rotation into Bitcoin, gold, and equities.

At the same time, inflation data is cooling, which under normal circumstances would open the door for rate cuts. But the bond market isn’t making it easy. 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated near 4.4%, and there’s weak demand for U.S. debt with key foreign buyers like China and Japan stepping back.

That leaves the Fed in a tight spot. Cutting rates now could spook bond markets, pushing yields even higher and tightening financial conditions instead of easing them. That’s why instead of slashing rates, the Fed might rely on more subtle liquidity tools, like adjusting repo operations or ending QT, to support Treasury demand without risking inflation.

All of this plays straight into the hands of crypto investors. As confidence in traditional monetary policy wanes and the dollar softens, Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign, fixed-supply asset becomes more relevant. The macro landscape may be uncertain, but for crypto, it’s potentially bullish fuel.

After setting a new low early Monday morning, Bitcoin traded sideways for several days until it surged to $84,000 on Wednesday afternoon, following news that Trump will pause tariffs for 90 days, sparking relief bounces across the board. However, it faced rejection at that level and dropped back below the $81,400 support. Since then, it has managed to crawl back toward that level and is currently trading just below it at $81,300.