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After a week of mixed price action, Ethereum surged to a new all-time high of $4,956 on Sunday, nearly touching $5,000, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $116,900 key level and retraced lower. Broader altcoins followed suit, showing strength primarily led by Ethereum.

Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole signaling a likely September rate cut drove a sharp move in markets: spot gold gained over 1%, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index plunged. This highlights the immediate market reaction to dovish Fed signals, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, Bitcoin, and crypto.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s get into it.

While Bitcoin was unable to reclaim the $116,900 key level price line on Friday and got perfectly rejected at that level, trending lower since, Ethereum managed to show continued strength and actually set a new all-time high on Sunday afternoon, rising to $4,956 and just shy of the $5,000 mark. Price has since pulled back, falling below the $4,670 support, with the broader altcoin market retracing as well.

Following Powell's signals at Jackson Hole that a September rate cut is likely, spot gold gained over 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index simultaneously plunged. This inverse correlation highlights the immediate market response to dovish Federal Reserve policy, as lower anticipated rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

The longer-term dollar chart reveals a more concerning picture for greenback bulls, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index testing critical trend support that has held since mid-2025. After peaking near 1280 in early April, the dollar has been grinding lower in a clear downtrend, with the recent Powell-driven selloff bringing it dangerously close to breaking below the ascending trendline around the 1200 level.

A failure of this key support level would likely accelerate flows into alternative assets, as investors seek refuge from a systematically weakening reserve currency.

Meanwhile, the divergence between the market-cap weighted S&P 500 and its equal-weighted counterpart tells a familiar story of concentrated gains in mega-cap technology stocks. While the broader market has delivered only modest returns since early 2024, the influence of large tech firms has driven the headline index to impressive heights approaching 35% gains. 

The tech sector's outperformance reinforces our thesis that technological disruption, whether in traditional markets or emerging crypto ecosystems, continues to create outsized returns for early adopters.

With Bitcoin selling off and dropping below $112,000 again, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved lower as well, back into neutral territory with a reading of 46. Since Bitcoin first crossed $110,000 in July, this marks the lowest reading for the index, while price for now still remains at elevated levels.

Generally, as long as price is able to hold key levels like $111,900 on the daily timeframe, resets in the Fear & Greed Index are healthy and allow for more sustainable and continued upside following these pullbacks, potentially paving the way for price to move toward all-time high territory, and possibly beyond. Nevertheless, we have to remain objective and cautious here, as this could also be an early sign of a deeper correction and a more extended pullback.

Total Bitcoin spot ETF flows have been negative throughout the entire past week, with outflows peaking on August 19th as $523 million left Bitcoin ETF products. This has been largely reflected in price action, showing weakness and a downward trend. To anticipate renewed strength, we want to see ETF flows turn positive again and remain consistently so, signaling fresh demand and capital inflows into the asset.

Notably, while Bitcoin ETFs faced outflows all week, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded net inflows on both Thursday and Friday, heading into the weekend and potentially signaling the strength we observed in Ethereum’s move toward new all-time highs. 

Here as well, for continued upside we want to see this metric confirm demand through sustained and strong inflows into the products.

👀 Key Events Ahead:

The most critical event for crypto this week is Friday’s Core PCE Inflation release, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, which will provide the clearest signal for monetary policy outlook. In addition, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence and Thursday’s Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims will give important insights into consumer sentiment, growth, and labor market resilience. The Michigan surveys and Chicago PMI on Friday will further refine the inflation and consumer outlook. While no central bank rate decision is scheduled, these releases will heavily influence Fed expectations and overall market risk sentiment.

What to watch in Friday’s Core PCE Inflation data:

Crypto investors should closely monitor these indicators, with particular focus on Core PCE, as they will shape market volatility and help identify potential opportunities and risks going forward.

Bitcoin shot up from our key level at $111,900 to the next higher key price of $116,900 quickly following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. While price action was largely driven by the speech, price still perfectly respected our key levels. At $116,900, Bitcoin faced rejection and trended lower again, initially finding support at $111,900 before dropping further today. Price is now battling to reclaim this level or risk another rejection and continued downside.

The two-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap paints a bullish picture, with nearly all downside liquidity already cleared, while a major cluster of remaining leverage sits just below $120,000, pointing toward potential upside.

Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, we want to see Bitcoin reclaim the recently lost key level of $111,900 and show strength. From there, price could trend higher, targeting the next levels. Long opportunities arise on a successful bullish retest of $111,900, with targets at $113,300 first, $115,300 second, and $116,900 as the third and final take profit level, with invalidation if price falls below entry.

Bearish Scenario
In the bearish case, Bitcoin fails to trend higher, faces rejection once more at $111,900, and moves lower. Short opportunities may emerge on a successful bearish retest of $111,900, targeting $109,300, with invalidation if price reclaims the entry level.

The collective altcoin market has been trending mostly sideways throughout August, with TOTAL3 struggling to hold above the key $1.05 trillion mark, not yet breaking decisively higher toward $1.13T, but also avoiding a drop back toward $950B. Notably, the market is currently being held up primarily by Ethereum, which has been the clear leader and outperformer ever since we first highlighted its trend shift and bottom back in April.

Ethereum continues to serve as a prime asset to hold, offering relatively low risk compared to the broader altcoin space while still providing upside potential. That said, it makes sense to rotate small fractions of profits into other high-cap altcoins that may still have more room to run from here. 

We are not yet looking at low-cap or high-risk plays, instead focusing only on top altcoins and high market-cap names, as downside risk remains and potential corrections could quickly erase gains if low caps overreact, as they typically do.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

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As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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