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This week’s spotlight turns to earnings resilience and capital rotation across traditional and crypto markets. Corporate America’s strong Q3 results have reinforced confidence, while gold’s record run faces its first major pause. 

As profit-taking accelerates in precious metals, capital may be preparing to rotate into risk assets and Bitcoin stands to benefit most. Meanwhile, crypto dealmaking is heating up again, signaling a return of institutional confidence and long-term growth appetite.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Corporate America is crushing it this earnings season, with the proportion of S&P 500 companies beating estimates reaching its highest level in over four years. Through October 21st, with 17% of the index having reported, the beat rate shows that companies have successfully navigated concerns about slowing growth and elevated costs. This strength is particularly encouraging given the skepticism heading into this reporting period, providing solid fundamental support for the market’s resilient performance.

Gold-backed ETF investors have pumped the brakes after bullion’s extraordinary run to record highs, with the largest single-day outflow since May. The daily changes in total holdings show rising volatility and profit-taking after what has been one of gold’s strongest years in recent memory. This sharp reversal suggests that some investors are locking in gains after gold hit new all-time highs above $4,300 per ounce. The question now is whether this represents healthy consolidation or the beginning of a deeper pullback. Should this mark the cycle top for gold, we expect capital to rotate into Bitcoin, fueling its next and potentially final leg higher, a pattern seen in previous cycles and discussed in our Wednesday market briefing.

JPMorgan's trading desk has laid out its playbook for today’s September Core CPI release, and the probabilities show how much hinges on this single data point. The firm assigns a 65% probability to outcomes that would keep the S&P 500 relatively flat or modestly higher, suggesting traders are positioned for inflation to remain sticky but not alarming. The tail risks tell the real story: a cool reading below 0.25% month-over-month could spark a 1–1.5% rally, while a hot print above 0.40% might trigger losses of up to 2.25%.

The cryptocurrency industry is also experiencing a strong revival in dealmaking, with Q3 2025 transaction values reaching $10 billion, double the previous quarter and the highest in years. After nearly three years of dormancy following the 2022 collapse, this surge suggests institutional confidence is returning to digital assets and blockchain solutions. The acceleration has been particularly sharp throughout 2025, as companies move from survival mode back into growth and consolidation strategies, a very positive sign for the sector’s long-term outlook.

The cross-currents are clear: inflation data remains the market's main focus, crypto is staging a legitimate institutional comeback, gold investors are taking profits, and corporate earnings are providing a solid foundation. As we head into the final two months of 2025, the interplay between these forces will determine whether markets can extend their gains or take a breather to digest recent advances.