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Hello and happy Friday!
The dollar remains central, climbing steadily through January, creating headwinds for risk assets. Bitcoin has struggled to hold key technical levels around 92,000, while Ethereum and Solana show pockets of relative strength.
ETF flows, liquidity, and liquidation clusters are shaping near-term volatility, making positioning and risk management critical for the weekend.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: The dollar’s role as the primary macro driver, what its historical pattern implies for 2026, and how bond complacency and stretched equity valuations could impact risk assets, including crypto.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: Key support and resistance levels, ETF flow dynamics, liquidation targets, and clearly defined bullish and bearish trade setups heading into the weekend.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: Critical ETH/USD and ETH/BTC levels, ETF flow trends, liquidation zones, and actionable long and short scenarios based on current structure.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: Relative strength versus BTC and ETH, key technical levels, liquidation risk zones, and outlined trade setups for both continuation and downside scenarios.
Let’s dive in 👇
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:
The dollar sits at the center of our macro framework, acting as the primary transmission mechanism through which monetary policy, risk appetite, and global capital flows influence asset prices. In January, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen steadily from around 1,200 to nearly 1,210, creating a headwind for crypto and other risk assets, which typically perform best when the greenback weakens. Despite recent short-term strength, the dollar remains within the broader bearish trend that has persisted since Trump took office.
Dollar Rising in January (Source: Bloomberg)
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