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Hello and happy Monday!
As we enter November, markets are showing clear signs of transition. Gold’s rally has lost momentum, equity gains are now concentrated in a handful of tech giants, and bond yields are rising again as investors reassess the path of rate cuts. For Bitcoin and crypto, this tightening liquidity backdrop means volatility ahead, with both risks and opportunities emerging as we approach the next macro inflection point.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
📈 Market Review: Gold pulls back from record highs as China’s tax reforms hit demand, while equity gains remain narrowly driven by mega-cap tech stocks. Treasury yields rise above 4% again as optimism for December rate cuts fades.
🔍 Current Market Conditions: Bitcoin sentiment softens as the Fear & Greed Index slips from 50 to 43. ETF flows stay negative into week’s end, inflows needed for renewed bullish momentum.
👀 Key Events Ahead: ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, ADP Employment Report, and Consumer Sentiment data take center stage. Traders watch closely for clues on U.S. growth and Fed policy as the market digests mixed signals.
📊 Technical Analysis: Bitcoin remains above key structural support, forming potential higher lows. Heatmap data highlights clustered liquidations above 111,800, the area to watch for a possible bullish reversal.
🚀 Altcoin Insights: TOTAL3 loses the $1T level, retesting $950B support as ETH/BTC grinds toward 0.03255. Portfolio strategy stays focused on Bitcoin, high-cap altcoins, and selective exposure to AI narratives.
Let’s dive in 👇
📈 Market Review:
Spot gold has pulled back from its October peak near $4,500 per ounce, settling around $4,000 as we enter November. The sharp summer rally continues to unwind, exactly as anticipated, with China’s new tax reforms on gold purchases weighing on demand from the world’s largest consumer market. Historically, gold topping and retracing has been a positive signal for Bitcoin, as capital often rotates into digital assets once momentum in precious metals fades.
Gold Eases as China Tax Reform Hits Buying (Source: Bloomberg)
The performance gap across major equity indices this year is striking. Technology stocks have powered much of the market’s advance, driving the Nasdaq 100 up nearly 30% and the S&P 500 about 17% since last November, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 has remained largely flat throughout 2025. This divergence shows that the majority of stocks have been left behind, with gains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology leaders. For investors, it raises important questions about the sustainability of the rally and whether broader market participation will eventually emerge, or if we are seeing a structural shift toward narrower market leadership.
Tech Driving US Stock Market Gains (Source: Bloomberg)
The concentration risk in U.S. equities has now reached historic proportions. Nvidia alone commands a larger weighting in the S&P 500 than six entire sectors combined, including Healthcare, Industrials, and Consumer Staples. Such dominance underscores how heavily current market performance depends on a small number of companies. The narrow leadership makes equity markets increasingly sensitive to any pullback in tech sentiment, highlighting the importance of diversification and disciplined risk management at this stage of the cycle.
Nvidia’s S&P 500 Weighting Tops Six Other Sectors (Source: Bloomberg)
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above 4% after briefly dipping to 3.9% in October, signaling fading enthusiasm for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. After easing from highs above 4.6% earlier this year, yields have stabilized within a narrow range as investors reassess the path of monetary policy. The latest uptick suggests growing skepticism that a December rate cut remains likely.
Ten-Year Treasury Yield Extends Rise Above 4% Mark (Source: Bloomberg)
Together, these four charts capture markets in transition: traditional safe havens are cooling, equity gains are increasingly concentrated, and fixed income markets are recalibrating expectations. The macro backdrop points to a late-cycle environment, defined by tightening breadth, shifting capital flows, and an approaching inflection point for risk assets.
🔍 Current Market Conditions:
With Bitcoin pulling back over the past week and opening red this morning after a brief weekend recovery, market sentiment has softened as well. The Fear and Greed Index dropped from a perfectly neutral 50 last Monday to 43 today. While still within the neutral zone, a continued decline in price could quickly push sentiment back into fear territory.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index (Source: Coinglass)
For context, major cycle tops typically occur when the index enters extreme greed levels above 80, something we haven’t seen since January 2025, when Bitcoin hit $106,000 before correcting to $76,000, entering extreme fear, and then rallying to new highs of $124,000. The Fear and Greed Index remains a valuable tool for putting current price action into perspective and comparing sentiment shifts across market cycles.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (Source: Coinglass)
Bitcoin spot ETF flows closed last week in negative territory, with consecutive outflows on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Momentum has yet to turn decisively positive, which will be key for a sustainable reversal. As we open the new week, positive inflows would help restore bullish sentiment and stabilize price action.
