This May 5-7 in 2026, Consensus will bring the largest crypto conference in the Americas to Miami’s electric epicenter of finance, technology, and culture.

Celebrated as ‘The Super Bowl of Blockchain’, Consensus Miami will gather 20,000 industry leaders, investors, and executives from across finance, Web3, and AI for three days of market-moving intel, meaningful connections, and accelerated business growth.

Ready to invest in what’s next? Consensus is your best bet to unlock the future, get deals done, and party with purpose. You can’t afford to miss it.

Register & Save 20% with BEEHIIV

Our 2025 debasement thesis continues to play out with remarkable precision. Precious metals and digital assets have surged as global currency concerns intensify, gold is up around 45%, silver nearly 60%, and Bitcoin roughly 30% year-to-date.

The synchronized rally across these assets underscores how monetary debasement has become the dominant macro driver, validating the positioning we’ve maintained throughout the year.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Our debasement thesis has played out exceptionally well through 2025, with precious metals and digital assets posting remarkable gains amid intensifying global currency concerns. Gold and silver have surged approximately 45% and 60% respectively since the start of the year, reflecting mounting investor anxiety over monetary stability and purchasing power erosion. Bitcoin has also rallied roughly 30%, reinforcing the theme. The synchronized advance across these assets suggests that currency debasement fears have become the dominant macro driver, validating the positioning we’ve maintained throughout the year.

The yield curve steepening trade that defined much of 2024 and early 2025 now appears to be losing momentum as we move into the fourth quarter. After peaking above 100 basis points earlier this year, the 5s30s spread has stabilized near current levels, implying that the “easy money” in this trade may have already been made. This flattening in the steepening trend could signal that markets either believe the Fed’s normalization path is largely priced in or that growth concerns are beginning to cap long-end yields.

Implied volatility has been systematically crushed across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities throughout 2025, creating an environment of eerie calm that often precedes significant market shifts. The CBOE VIX Index has settled into a historically low range, while measures of currency and bond volatility have compressed to multi-year lows. This subdued volatility backdrop has favored carry trades and momentum strategies, but it also raises questions about whether markets are underpricing tail risks. The current calm suggests either extraordinary confidence in central bank control or a potentially dangerous complacency.

Meanwhile, performance dispersion within AI-focused equity baskets remains striking. Most thematic funds have delivered 40–70% year-to-date returns, yet even the Magnificent 7 have underperformed more targeted AI infrastructure plays, highlighting how concentrated exposure has been far more rewarding than broad tech ownership. 

We expect this demand dynamic to spill over into AI-focused cryptocurrencies and tokens, which could lead the next wave of speculative activity as retail capital seeks leveraged exposure to the artificial intelligence narrative.

With Bitcoin reaching yet another fresh all-time high over the weekend, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved higher as well, entering greed territory with a current reading of 70 points. While this signals growing optimism and the early stages of potential overextension, we have not yet entered extreme greed and notably, the market hasn’t touched that zone even once in 2025. 

For reference, on November 12th, the index reached extreme greed when Bitcoin was trading at $86,800, yet price went on to rally to $106,000 in the following month despite the metric flashing continuous extreme greed. Based on the current reading, there still appears to be room to run.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF net flows closed last week exceptionally strong, with every single day recording positive inflows that pushed price higher in tandem. This is particularly bullish, as current Spot ETF buying is not driven by short-term traders or speculative participants, but rather by institutional demand, with macro portfolio managers and funds increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a rotation play out of commodities and small caps.

The most important event for crypto this week will be Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, both taking on even greater significance as the U.S. government shutdown has effectively halted most major economic data releases, including Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment figures.

With limited macro data available, markets will look to these Fed communications for clues on the policy outlook heading into Q4. The FOMC Minutes should offer insight into how divided policymakers remain on the pace and scale of future easing, while Powell’s speech will likely set the tone for risk assets through the end of the week.

In the absence of labor and inflation reports, traders should pay particular attention to Powell’s tone, any hint of continued dovishness could reinforce the bullish momentum in Bitcoin and risk assets, while a more cautious stance may briefly cool sentiment.

After climbing to the $122,700 key level on Friday, Bitcoin initially encountered resistance but managed to break through early Sunday morning, moving into fresh all-time highs and peaking at $125,600. While price has since pulled back, it remains above the reclaimed $122,700 key level ahead of the U.S. market open later today.

As Bitcoin pushed higher, the two-week liquidation heatmap shows leveraged liquidation clusters on the upside being taken out one by one, with price advancing in a staircase-like trend. Currently, significant liquidity is building on the downside, with leveraged liquidations extending down to around $110,000. Some remaining liquidity also persists above current price, just beyond the recent swing high, reaching up to $130,000.

Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case, Bitcoin needs to hold above the recently reclaimed $122,700 key level and continue trending higher into new all-time highs. Long opportunities open on a successful bullish retest of $122,700, with upside targets at $125,600 and beyond.

Bearish Scenario
In the bearish case, Bitcoin fails to maintain support above $122,700 and turns lower. Short opportunities open on a successful bearish retest of $122,700, with downside targets at $118,400 and invalidation if price reclaims the entry level.

With Bitcoin moving higher, TOTAL3 followed suit and managed to reach fresh all-time highs on Friday, tapping into $1.18T and consolidating above the $1.13T key level since. Notably, this metric has not made consecutive new highs throughout the year like Bitcoin, which has continued grinding higher all year. TOTAL3 has only now reclaimed the previous cycle’s established all-time highs. Our thesis is that this metric now enters price discovery as well, mirroring what Bitcoin did after breaking above its previous cycle highs at $68,000.

Ethereum/Bitcoin has not yet managed to trend higher and continues to consolidate just below the 0.03723 key level, neither strong enough to reclaim it yet, nor weak enough to sell off and trend lower toward 0.03255.

Altcoins collectively breaking into fresh all-time highs could mark a turning point, especially within a favorable macro backdrop that supports speculative appetite. Investors are beginning to see attractive returns in altcoins, though our focus remains on high-cap and well-established plays for now, as altcoins are inherently volatile and risky by nature.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

If you want to stay ahead of the curve with in-depth analysis and real-time updates, make sure to subscribe to Full Research Access for even more insights - you won’t want to miss what’s coming next!

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

Stay ahead of the curve with Sandman Research.