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As we move deeper into November, markets are entering a decisive phase. Bitcoin has erased 2025 gains, risk sentiment has deteriorated sharply, and Treasury yields remain elevated after the U.S. government shutdown. While equities are still holding key technical levels, liquidity conditions continue to tighten, creating an environment where volatility can expand quickly in both directions.

For crypto, this week’s macro landscape presents a pivotal moment: extreme fear, a fresh death cross, and multiple major economic releases now converge to determine whether this pullback stabilizes or transitions into something much deeper.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Bitcoin's selloff intensified in recent sessions, with the cryptocurrency erasing all of its 2025 gains and falling back below the psychological $95,000 level marked by the red dotted line. The sharp decline represents a significant reversal from the bullish momentum that carried prices above $120,000 earlier this year, and the breach of this key support zone increases further downside risk in the near term.

Bitcoin registered a death cross on Sunday, when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day, a technical event that historically has marked local lows rather than the beginning of protracted bear markets. The data shows that while the initial days following such signals tend to be choppy, medium-term performance has been constructive, with average gains of 15.94% after two months and 26.58% after three months across past occurrences. However, experienced traders note that this pattern holds true only if the broader cycle remains intact, when bull markets end, the death cross rally fails to materialize. If bitcoin can find support and bounce from current levels, it would align with historical precedent and suggest the cycle has further to run, but failure to stabilize could signal another leg down before any meaningful recovery attempt toward the 200-day moving average, potentially marking a macro lower high.

The S&P 500's ability to hold above its 50-day moving average remains a bright spot amid the broader market weakness, signaling that underlying technical support is still intact despite recent volatility. This resilience suggests that institutional buyers continue to view dips as attractive entry points, and the index's ability to avoid a breakdown below this key trend line has prevented a more severe unwind of risk positions. However, the narrowing gap between price and support raises questions about how much longer this defense can hold if selling pressure persists.

Treasury yields ended the government shutdown period elevated above 4.10%, reflecting persistent concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for sustained higher rates even as the political impasse resolved. The climb in yields throughout the shutdown added meaningful pressure on equity valuations, particularly for duration-sensitive growth stocks, and has forced a repricing of near-term Fed expectations. With borrowing costs remaining high, the path forward for risk assets depends heavily on whether yields stabilize here or continue their grind higher, further tightening financial conditions.

The week ahead will be particularly telling for bitcoin and broader risk sentiment, with the next five to seven trading days serving as a make-or-break period for the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory. While historical patterns offer some comfort, traders would be wise to heed the reminder to trade the market they have, not the market they want, and positioning should reflect actual price action rather than hopeful narratives. If bitcoin can stabilize and equities maintain technical support while yields pause their ascent, the setup could favor a year-end recovery, but any deterioration in these key variables would warrant a more defensive stance heading into the final weeks of 2025.