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As we move deeper into November, markets are entering a decisive phase. Bitcoin has erased 2025 gains, risk sentiment has deteriorated sharply, and Treasury yields remain elevated after the U.S. government shutdown. While equities are still holding key technical levels, liquidity conditions continue to tighten, creating an environment where volatility can expand quickly in both directions.

For crypto, this week’s macro landscape presents a pivotal moment: extreme fear, a fresh death cross, and multiple major economic releases now converge to determine whether this pullback stabilizes or transitions into something much deeper.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Bitcoin's selloff intensified in recent sessions, with the cryptocurrency erasing all of its 2025 gains and falling back below the psychological $95,000 level marked by the red dotted line. The sharp decline represents a significant reversal from the bullish momentum that carried prices above $120,000 earlier this year, and the breach of this key support zone increases further downside risk in the near term.

Bitcoin registered a death cross on Sunday, when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day, a technical event that historically has marked local lows rather than the beginning of protracted bear markets. The data shows that while the initial days following such signals tend to be choppy, medium-term performance has been constructive, with average gains of 15.94% after two months and 26.58% after three months across past occurrences. However, experienced traders note that this pattern holds true only if the broader cycle remains intact, when bull markets end, the death cross rally fails to materialize. If bitcoin can find support and bounce from current levels, it would align with historical precedent and suggest the cycle has further to run, but failure to stabilize could signal another leg down before any meaningful recovery attempt toward the 200-day moving average, potentially marking a macro lower high.

The S&P 500's ability to hold above its 50-day moving average remains a bright spot amid the broader market weakness, signaling that underlying technical support is still intact despite recent volatility. This resilience suggests that institutional buyers continue to view dips as attractive entry points, and the index's ability to avoid a breakdown below this key trend line has prevented a more severe unwind of risk positions. However, the narrowing gap between price and support raises questions about how much longer this defense can hold if selling pressure persists.

Treasury yields ended the government shutdown period elevated above 4.10%, reflecting persistent concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for sustained higher rates even as the political impasse resolved. The climb in yields throughout the shutdown added meaningful pressure on equity valuations, particularly for duration-sensitive growth stocks, and has forced a repricing of near-term Fed expectations. With borrowing costs remaining high, the path forward for risk assets depends heavily on whether yields stabilize here or continue their grind higher, further tightening financial conditions.

The week ahead will be particularly telling for bitcoin and broader risk sentiment, with the next five to seven trading days serving as a make-or-break period for the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory. While historical patterns offer some comfort, traders would be wise to heed the reminder to trade the market they have, not the market they want, and positioning should reflect actual price action rather than hopeful narratives. If bitcoin can stabilize and equities maintain technical support while yields pause their ascent, the setup could favor a year-end recovery, but any deterioration in these key variables would warrant a more defensive stance heading into the final weeks of 2025.

Bitcoin continues to break down, losing multiple technical support levels in succession. As a result, market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with investor confidence turning decisively negative. The Fear & Greed Index has slid further into extreme fear, registering a reading of 15. The last time we saw extreme fear was in early April, when Bitcoin traded near $76,500.

Extreme fear readings are rare and historically mark significant sentiment and price extremes. When the index fell into this zone on August 6th, 2024, Bitcoin traded around $55,300 before rallying to $106,000 over the following six months. Similarly, when extreme fear hit on April 9th, 2025, Bitcoin surged from $76,500 to $124,800 within seven months. Combined with the recent death cross, these metrics strengthen the argument that, if the broader cycle remains intact, Bitcoin could be setting up for another powerful rally into year-end and into the new year. This aligns with the thesis we’ve maintained for months, offering attractive asymmetric buying opportunities now. The primary risk to this outlook is structural: that the cycle has already peaked and Bitcoin is transitioning into a full bear market.

ETF flows add another important dimension. Spot Bitcoin ETFs closed last week with three straight days of outflows (Wednesday through Friday), reflecting weakening momentum. A decisive return to positive inflows is critical for any sustainable reversal in price. As the new week begins, inflows will be essential to restore bullish sentiment and stabilize market structure, especially if a recovery rally is to take hold. Notably, both rallies referenced above (August 2024 and April 2025) were accompanied by consistent ETF inflows, underscoring their importance as a key confirmation signal.

This week’s U.S. macro calendar is heavier and more market-moving than the last, with several high-impact releases that could influence yields, liquidity expectations, and risk appetite across crypto and equities. With Bitcoin trading at its lowest levels since May and market sentiment shaken, incoming data will play a major role in determining whether this pullback stabilizes, or deepens.

The week begins with Monday’s NY Fed Manufacturing Index and comments from FOMC member Waller. Manufacturing data has remained volatile in recent months, and another soft print would reinforce concerns about weakening economic momentum. Waller’s remarks will also be closely parsed for any clues on the Fed’s view of inflation progress and the timing of future policy adjustments.

The key focus of the week lands on Wednesday with the release of the FOMC Minutes, which carry significant market-moving potential. Investors will look for details on how close the Fed may be to shifting toward a more accommodative stance, and whether last month’s discussions signaled any internal debate about cutting rates sooner than currently projected.

On Thursday, markets turn to one of the most important releases of the week: the U.S. Jobs Report / Nonfarm Payrolls. Labor market strength remains central to the Fed’s policy path and a strong print could dampen rate-cut expectations and pressure risk assets, while a softer report may provide relief for crypto and equities. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will offer an additional read on regional activity and business sentiment.

The week concludes with a dense set of indicators on Friday, including Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations. Services PMI remains especially critical, as the U.S. economy is still predominantly services-driven. Any signs of cooling could revive rate-cut speculation, while elevated sentiment or inflation expectations may push yields higher and weigh on crypto.

Bitcoin traded mainly sideways over the weekend, holding above 95,000 for the most part, only losing it briefly on Sunday before reclaiming it again. As explained, the next lower technical support level, and a line of last resort, is the key price level at 92,000, sitting below the 95,000 key level. Price could retest this before any significant bounce or reversal.

The one-week Bitcoin liquidation heatmap shows leverage concentrated both below and above current price. The major cluster on the downside sits just below recent lows at 92,700 and fades into the 90,000 area. On the upside, the most notable cluster lies just above the weekend highs of 96,900 and above the weekly highs of 105,000. This structure on the liquidation heatmap clearly hints at volatility ahead, with price movement in either direction equally possible.

Bullish Scenario:
In the bullish case, Bitcoin cleanly bounces off 95,000 and continues higher, regaining upward momentum. Long setups appear on a confirmed reclaim of this level, targeting 98,800 and 102,000, with invalidation if price drops back below entry. If price first retests 102,000, additional long opportunities arise on a confirmed bullish retest, targeting 95,000.

Bearish Scenario:
In the bearish case, Bitcoin fails to hold 95,000 and faces rejection. Short setups may develop on a confirmed bearish retest, targeting 92,000, with invalidation if price reclaims entry. If 92,000 breaks, further short setups open on a bearish retest of that level, targeting 88,700.

Altcoins moved lower as well, with TOTAL3 facing rejection at the 1T technical level and psychological mark on Tuesday and selling off since. TOTAL3 also lost the next lower technical support at 950B on Wednesday and is now closing in on forming fresh lows, targeting the next lower technical support level at 847B.

Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) continues to hold above the 0.03255 technical level, which is a good sign. Losing this mark would lead to further downside toward 0.02990 and would not only see Ethereum underperform Bitcoin, but likely trigger renewed bleeding across the broader altcoin market, potentially even more severely.

Still, we maintain a focus on a crypto portfolio anchored in Bitcoin and top-tier altcoins from our Q4 Watchlist. Now is not the time to take up unnecessary risk; Bitcoin and high caps are already exceptionally risky and volatile by nature, and we do not want to further increase portfolio variance by adding avoidable exposure here. Our outlook remains constructive into year-end for risk assets and digital assets, but our approach stays data-driven and selective, maintaining a defensive tilt toward high-cap altcoins for now. Rest assured, if the tides turn and we see a favorable backdrop for taking on further risk and moving deeper into lower-cap altcoins, we will absolutely signal it to you ahead of the curve.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

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As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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