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Hey there, and happy Friday!
This week’s spotlight turns to growing macro divergence, with Japan preparing for a potential rate hike that would mark its highest policy level since 1995, an event that could strengthen the yen, trigger capital repatriation, and tighten global liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains on the verge of easing, with markets still pricing a December cut as the base case despite rapidly shifting expectations throughout the past month.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: The BOJ signals a historic pivot as a December rate hike becomes increasingly likely, threatening global liquidity at a time when the Fed is still leaning toward easing. Crypto volumes have cooled sharply since October, reducing fragility across leverage markets, while the S&P 500 holds near record levels despite rising macro uncertainty.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: After reclaiming 92,000 earlier in the week and holding it for several sessions, BTC fell back below the level this morning and may be reentering the lower range if breakdown confirmation follows. ETF flows were mixed with a notable 194M outflow spike, and liquidation clusters now sit heavily below price near 83,700.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: Ethereum reached 3,250 mid-week before pulling back into the 3,059 region. ETH/BTC continues to show relative strength, marking its strongest bounce from 0.03255 since November. ETF flows remained mostly negative, and the heatmap now shows heavy downside liquidity sitting below 2,700.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: Solana pushed into 143 resistance before rejecting cleanly, forming a broader range between 130 and 143. SOL/BTC shows similar structure, hovering around 0.00149 after a brief rally to 0.00157. Liquidation clusters are balanced above and below price, signaling potential for sharp volatility once a direction is chosen.
Let’s dive in 👇




