The bond market is flashing warning signs, yields are testing critical thresholds, and the Fed may soon pivot to cuts, but what does it all mean for crypto? Are investors prepared for an environment where traditional safe havens lose their appeal, dollar liquidity wanes, and Bitcoin could outperform? 

We’re here to break it down and bring clarity, showing how macro pressures and market dynamics might set the stage for the next major move in altcoins. 

Among them, one coin stands out, defending a crucial floor and showing clear resilience, potentially primed for a significant rally if key levels flip bullish.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.97% on Tuesday, bringing the psychologically important 5% level back into focus. A move above 5% would add significant pressure on risk assets. The dynamic becomes even more complex if the Federal Reserve turns to aggressive rate cuts: policy easing at the short end, while long yields remain elevated, could generate an inverted risk environment where traditional safe havens rapidly lose appeal. Should yields retreat from these levels amid easing, capital flows into Bitcoin and crypto are likely to accelerate as investors search for alternatives to diminished fixed-income returns.

In the UK, the 30-year gilt yield has reached its highest level since 1998, underscoring how rising borrowing costs are a global phenomenon impacting developed markets alike. The move mirrors pressures in the U.S. Treasury market, pointing to a coordinated tightening backdrop that persists despite more dovish central bank rhetoric.

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has weakened steadily through 2025, creating more favorable conditions for Bitcoin and alternative assets. This broad-based dollar softness, visible against the yen, Swiss franc, and euro, typically aligns with greater demand for non-dollar stores of value. Its sustained nature suggests deeper structural shifts in global monetary dynamics rather than a short-term swing.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 for August, marking the sixth consecutive month below the critical 50 threshold. This confirms ongoing contraction in the factory sector. Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong performance patterns relative to this indicator, often reaching cycle peaks around 16 months after the ISM crosses back above 50. That framework held in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, providing a valuable lens for timing future moves.

The confluence of rising yields, dollar weakness, and manufacturing contraction creates a complex backdrop for digital assets, but one that ultimately supports our bullish Bitcoin thesis. While elevated borrowing costs present near-term headwinds, the market’s trajectory still hinges on dollar liquidity dynamics driven by Federal Reserve policy. Bitcoin remains fundamentally a liquidity-driven asset, and history shows it performs best when monetary conditions ease. With rate cuts increasingly expected, we see Q4 as the likely window for the next major impulse in crypto, setting the stage for renewed momentum into year-end.

Bitcoin remains in a clear structural downtrend since reaching fresh all-time highs on August 14. Currently, price is finding support and has been trending higher since Monday, reclaiming the $109,300 key level and now approaching $111,900. It’s important to note this still counts as a lower high within a bearish structure, unless $113,400 is reclaimed, which would invalidate the bearish trend.

TOTAL3 continues to move sideways below the $1.05T key level, still unable to reclaim it with enough momentum to push toward $1.13T, while at the same time holding well enough to avoid a drop toward $950B. The $1T mark has been acting as support throughout the final days of August.

OTHERS followed a similar path, holding steadily above $280B and trading sideways, unable to reclaim the $300B mark. Notably, the ability to hold levels is viewed as a positive sign, since in earlier stages of this cycle both OTHERS and TOTAL3 pulled back sharply during Bitcoin weakness.