⚠️ This week, Bitcoin surged past $123,000 to new all-time highs, driven by strong institutional demand amid a calmer macro backdrop. With the US dollar weakening and volatility in traditional markets easing, crypto is capturing renewed investor focus.

However, key economic data and corporate earnings releases this week could test Bitcoin’s resilience and set the tone for risk assets. Today’s deep dive explores the complex interaction between macroeconomic forces and crypto trends to help you navigate what’s next.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Ready to capitalize on the macro-to-crypto convergence?

Bitcoin's explosive rally to new all-time highs above $123,000 represents a decisive breakout from months of consolidation. What's particularly striking is how this rally has been driven by genuine institutional demand rather than speculative retail fever.

Record spot Bitcoin ETF inflows signal that sophisticated investors are positioning aggressively for the next phase of cryptocurrency adoption.

The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has dropped to 80, marking its lowest level in over three years. This decline from highs of 200 in 2022 and 140 in early 2025 suggests growing investor confidence in the Fed’s rate trajectory and a more stable macro environment.

For Bitcoin, now trading above $120,000 and entering fresh all-time highs, this calm backdrop is highly supportive. Lower Treasury volatility often translates to improved liquidity and risk appetite, creating favorable conditions for continued upside in crypto and other risk assets.

Market expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have cooled considerably, with futures now pricing in approximately one rate cut by September rather than the multiple cuts anticipated earlier. This shift reflects a more realistic assessment of the Fed's likely policy path.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to have weathered the storm of political pressure, with prediction markets now pricing in an 80% probability that he will complete his current term. The dramatic volatility in these betting odds throughout 2025 reflects how intense political pressure surrounding monetary policy decisions has subsided from the peaks seen in April and May.

As Bitcoin has entered fresh all-time highs repeatedly over the past days, the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index has also risen, now sitting at 75 and in the “greed” zone. Notably, last Monday, when BTC was still trading at $107,000, the index was at 72, meaning sentiment has increased only modestly compared to the significant price rise.

For comparison, when Bitcoin first crossed $100,000 in November 2024, the Fear and Greed Index hit the “extreme greed” zone with a reading of 94. This suggests the current market environment is far healthier and that Bitcoin's strength could very well continue.

Another metric reinforcing this outlook is Google search interest for Bitcoin. While this metric surged to 100 during the 2021 bull market peak, it currently sits at just 30 and has only recently begun to trend higher, indicating we still have significant room to grow.

Meanwhile, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs remain consistently positive, with the last outflow recorded on July 1st. Not only have flows stayed green since then, but they have also surged to record levels over the past two trading days, which together brought in $2.21 billion in inflows, the highest since November 7th of last year.