Markets enter the new week with momentum accelerating across nearly every major asset class, as equities continue pushing into fresh all-time highs while crypto stabilizes after a strong multi-week recovery.

This report breaks down the key dynamics shaping markets this week: the explosive AI-driven rally powering global equities higher, improving but still cautious sentiment across crypto markets, and Bitcoin holding elevated levels as liquidity clusters continue defining near-term positioning.

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The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record, notching its sixth straight weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2024. Set against the near-10% collapse of April 2025, the recovery is striking. The fuel: a blowout earnings season with 85% of companies beating expectations, plus growing hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire.

The AI trade is what's really driving momentum. The Dow Jones Momentum Index has hit its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, with semiconductors leading the charge. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose for 18 straight sessions, gaining 47%, with every one of its 30 components outperforming the S&P 500. Conviction is real, but so is the crowding risk if sentiment turns.

That optimism is global. After a 10% drawdown earlier this year, the MSCI ACWI has surged to fresh all-time highs above 1,100. Strong earnings and Middle East de-escalation hopes are the twin catalysts. A rally this broad carries more credibility than a US-only move.

The standout remains South Korea. The Kospi surged 76% in 2025, best in the world, and keeps outperforming. The drivers: AI chip dominance via Samsung and SK Hynix, corporate governance reform, and household money rotating out of an unaffordable property market into stocks. This morning the Kospi opened at yet another record, with SK Hynix surging over 10%. Remarkably, it still trades at single-digit forward earnings multiples, one of the few markets that is both outperforming and cheap.

The bottom line: AI, earnings, and cautious geopolitical optimism are driving a genuine global bull market. Stretched valuations and elevated oil prices are the key risks to watch.

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Sentiment continues to stabilize gradually, with the Fear & Greed Index currently sitting at 48 in neutral territory. While conditions have clearly recovered from the extreme fear seen earlier in the quarter, positioning still reflects a market that remains cautious rather than fully risk-on.

Bitcoin ETF flows paint a similarly mixed but improving picture. Flows started the week constructively, with positive inflows recorded on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as Bitcoin continued its recovery higher. However, sentiment weakened into the second half of the week, with Thursday and Friday both closing negative alongside the broader market pullback. Despite the late-week weakness, net flows for the week still finished positive overall, while total Bitcoin ETF AUM climbed further to approximately $107B.

The stabilization in both sentiment and ETF demand suggests institutional participation remains structurally supportive despite increasing short-term volatility. At the same time, the inability to sustain inflows throughout the entire week highlights that conviction is still not fully established. For the market to regain stronger momentum, sustained ETF demand alongside improving sentiment conditions will likely be required.

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The week ahead is heavily focused on inflation and consumer data, which will play a key role in shaping expectations around Fed policy and the broader macro outlook. Monday begins with April Existing Home Sales data, offering insight into housing market resilience as elevated rates continue pressuring affordability and demand.

Attention then shifts to inflation data, with April CPI on Tuesday followed by April PPI on Wednesday. These releases will be closely watched after markets recently repriced toward a more hawkish Fed stance, as any upside surprise in inflation could further strengthen expectations that rates may remain higher for longer.

Wednesday also brings the latest OPEC Monthly Report, which could influence energy markets and inflation expectations depending on updated supply and demand projections. The focus then turns toward consumer and industrial activity later in the week, with April Retail Sales on Thursday and April Industrial Production on Friday providing a clearer picture of overall economic momentum.

Taken together, markets are entering a highly data-sensitive week where inflation, consumer strength, and growth expectations will likely drive short-term direction across equities, bonds, and crypto alike.

Bitcoin continues to hold elevated price levels and is currently trading between the $78,300 and $84,200 technical levels, sitting around $80,500 at the time of writing. Price action continues to show relative strength here, slowly grinding higher over the weekend after Friday’s selloff, suggesting buyers are still defending the broader higher-low structure for now.

The two-week liquidation heatmap shows that Bitcoin has already taken out a large portion of the resting upside liquidity during the recent rally, with leveraged positions now building on both sides of current price. To the downside, the most notable liquidation clusters remain concentrated around $77,000. To the upside, larger liquidity pockets continue to sit just above the recent highs near $82,000, leaving room for volatility in either direction.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin bounces off $78,300 with conviction, offering long opportunities targeting the $84,200 technical level, with invalidation on a move back below the reclaim level. A successful reclaim and hold above $84,200 opens the door for further longs targeting $88,800. Should price first retest $74,400, long opportunities may also emerge there targeting a move back toward $78,300.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin fails to hold $78,300, with short entries becoming valid on a confirmed bearish retest of that level, targeting $74,400 and invalidated on a reclaim above resistance. A decisive break below $74,400 would then open further downside toward $72,000, similarly invalidated on a reclaim back above the broken support level.

Looking at the bigger picture, TOTAL3 continued following Bitcoin higher this week, successfully reclaiming the key $743B technical level. Momentum remained constructive over the weekend as TOTAL3 briefly pushed toward $780B, marking a fresh higher high and continuing the broader short-term bullish structure.

ETH/BTC, on the other hand, has traded mostly sideways over the past few sessions following its prolonged downtrend of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. While the recent stabilization may suggest short-term selling pressure is cooling off, the pair still shows little evidence of meaningful relative strength returning to Ethereum. This continues to signal that altcoins, even larger-cap names like ETH, are still generally underperforming Bitcoin.

Although TOTAL3 has improved structurally by reclaiming key levels and printing higher highs, the lack of a stronger recovery in ETH/BTC indicates that a full altcoin rotation has not yet begun. For now, the market continues to favor selective positioning rather than broad altcoin exposure, with Bitcoin still leading overall momentum across the sector.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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