Markets are currently defined by a sharp contrast: equities continue to print record highs, yet beneath the surface, structural weaknesses are building, from negative breadth to an increasingly unattractive equity risk premium. 

Inside today’s report, you’ll find 12 charts covering Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels, dominance trends shaping capital rotation, and a tactical Chart of the Week with clearly defined trading setups and risk management guidance.

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Let’s dive in 👇

The dollar's recent rollercoaster captures the whole geopolitical story in a single chart. When the US attacked Iran in early March, investors rushed into the dollar as a safe haven. The ceasefire then erased most of that premium almost overnight, a reminder that war-driven currency spikes are typically short-lived, and that fading them has been the right trade.

But while the headline index recovered, the market underneath it is flashing warnings. The equity risk premium, essentially the bonus return stocks offer over safe government bonds, has turned negative, meaning Treasuries now yield more than S&P 500 earnings. That hasn't happened sustainably since the early 2000s, and it matters because it removes one of equities' strongest selling points: the argument that there's simply nowhere else to go.

Making that valuation concern more acute is the quality of the rally itself. Four of the S&P 500's last five all-time highs have come with more stocks falling than rising, a phenomenon known as negative breadth. A handful of mega-cap tech and AI names are doing all the heavy lifting, leaving the average stock behind. Rallies this narrow have historically been fragile; if the leaders stumble, there is very little underneath to break the fall.

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Yet stumble the market has not. The S&P 500 recovered from its early-April low near 6,050 to fresh records above 7,200, driven by ceasefire optimism and a strong earnings season. Investors have learned to bet on de-escalation, and so far, that bet has paid off handsomely.

The bottom line: Records are real, but the foundation is thin. The bond market won't support stocks at these valuations, breadth is weak, and the ceasefire remains fragile. One bad headline from the Strait of Hormuz could unwind weeks of gains. This is a market worth participating in cautiously, eyes open, stops tight.

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Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory this week after bouncing off $78,300, pushing higher and currently trading around $81,500. Momentum has clearly shifted in favor of the bulls on lower timeframes, and the focus now lies on whether Bitcoin can sustain this expansion.