Bitcoin faces a dynamic market landscape as we kick off the new trading week. In this report, we’ll analyze the latest price action, key technical levels, and the most important on-chain and macroeconomic factors influencing the market, along with the key upcoming catalysts to watch in the days ahead

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in!

After a sharp sell-off last Monday, Bitcoin managed to find support around $76,600 on Tuesday and slowly climbed higher for the rest of the week. We reached initial resistance at $84,300, where we got rejected on Sunday. The past trading week saw significant volatility and rapid price movements, not only in crypto but also across traditional financial markets. 

Stocks extended their consecutive downtrends, putting in lower lows until Friday, when they managed to find some relief with a recovery bounce. On that day, the S&P 500 added over $1 Trillion of market cap and posted its best day of 2025.

It remains to be seen whether or not that rebound is of sustained nature and if we manage to continue higher when U.S. markets open later today.

Note that despite the U.S. economy outperforming expectations last week across the board, with Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, PPI (MoM & YoY), and Core PPI (MoM & YoY) all coming in stronger than forecasted, uncertainty is still high and investors continue to step back.

The S&P 500 has dropped 10% from its highs, officially entering correction territory, and investors are feeling the pain. Trump insists short-term sacrifices will lead to long-term gains, but markets demand results, not patience.

Wall Street usually thrives on stability and confidence, both of which are fading as trade tensions escalate and foreign investment slows. With stocks sliding and economic pressure mounting, the big question here is: How long before markets lose confidence in Trump’s strategy? If volatility continues, history suggests that even he may be forced to change course soon.

The Fear and Greed Index clearly shows that we are still in Fear territory, currently slowly crawling up but still only sitting at 30 points. This goes hand in hand with the ongoing negative inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and the lack of strong buying pressure from ETF participants. These metrics suggest that retail investors are hesitant to re-enter the market as traders remain on the sidelines, potentially waiting for clearer signs of a market shift. 

The upcoming week is set to be eventful, with several key economic releases and policy decisions shaping market sentiment. 

Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will be the focal point, as markets anticipate the Fed’s stance on interest rates and forward guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 2% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting next week, with markets fully expecting the Federal Reserve to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate.

The upcoming FOMC meeting will also shed light on the Fed’s balance sheet policy and whether they continue reducing their holdings and maintain quantitative tightening or pause the runoff. A shift away from balance sheet reduction would signal a more accommodative stance and potentially boost demand for risk assets. The last Fed Minutes revealed that survey respondents, on average, expect the runoff process to conclude by mid-2025, making any updates on this front a key focus for investors.

Thursday brings the latest Jobless Claims figures, alongside the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the Home Sales report will offer further insights into the real estate market.

This week’s chart is rather simplified again, as there’s no need for overcomplicated technical analysis at this point. After bouncing strongly from the key level at $84,300 on March 1st, it offered support until price broke below last Sunday. Despite a gradual recovery during the course of last week, price got rejected at that level yesterday and is currently hovering around $83,000.

While this week is expected to be volatile and rather incalculable, there really only are two objective scenarios to expect from a technical perspective. 

Bullish Scenario: If markets react positive and we manage to see some upside throughout the week, I’d expect a swift reclaim of the key level at $84,300. Depending on how strong and sustainable that trend would be, we could then approach previous range lows, currently acting as resistance, at $92,000. This is a crucial level to reclaim sooner or later in order to potentially signal a major trend shift and expect a bullish trend continuation towards range highs again.

Bearish Scenario: The negative outcome would be a plain trend continuation to the downside, confirming the current rejection at our key level at $84,000. In that case, expect us to reach $78,000 again, potentially dipping even lower and retesting current lows at $76,600. This level would be crucial to hold in order to prevent more downside. If it doesn’t, expect price to continue possibly all the way down to the key area at $73,000, a scenario I explained in last week’s market report. 

While still struggling and lacking attention, the TOTAL3 altcoin index managed to reclaim our major key level at $800B, currently testing its support. In the short term, I can see us continue the uptrend and reclaim the next key level at $840B, turning it into support as well and paving the way for further upside. Should we lose support at $800B again, a continuation lower and retest of our key level at $716B would be likely. 

Altcoins are incredibly undervalued currently and a lot of analysts expect this sector to massively rebound later in the year, if general market conditions should better and macroeconomic factors start aligning. While Altcoins contain a lot of risk, the potential upside is disproportionately large, compared to the downside at this point. Our mainly focused-on narratives remain real world assets, gaming and AI. Various catalysts and recent developments in the space suggest that these narratives face the most predictable potential for growth over the rest of the year.

Every Wednesday, I release an in-depth altcoin market report, breaking down essential metrics, key charts, and crucial data points. This report is crafted to give you a strategic advantage, helping you stay ahead of the curve and make informed trading decisions with confidence. Subscribe now to get exclusive insights and key altcoin market analysis in Wednesday’s report.

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As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a great week ahead! 🚀

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