Bitcoin continues to navigate a complex market environment as we enter a new trading week. In today’s report, we’ll break down the latest price action, key technical levels and the most relevant on-chain and macroeconomic developments shaping the markets. 

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

📈 Market Review: A look at last week’s Bitcoin price action and key events.

🔍 Current Market Conditions: Sentiment Check and Deep Dive into important metrics.

👀 Key Events Ahead: Upcoming macroeconomic data releases, institutional flows, and potential catalysts.

📊 Technical Analysis: Key technical levels, areas of interest, and potential scenarios for the week ahead.

🚀 Altcoin Insights: Notable performers, sector strength, and where opportunities might emerge.

Let’s dive in!

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On Sunday two weeks ago, Bitcoin managed to close the weekly candle back inside our trading range at $94,000, after sharply declining to $78,000 in the preceding days. This important reclaim indicated potential strength and led to high anticipations for the last week and when markets opened up last Monday, Bitcoin immediately lost said level again, declining 9% within a day and closing below the range.

Throughout the last week, Bitcoin slowly climbed back up to the lower boundary of the range, where we got rejected on Friday, despite the highly anticipated White House Crypto Summit. Turns out, most retail traders and your favorite KOL on X simply had way to high expectations for the Summit, that unfortunately weren’t met.

Personally, I think the Summit and the executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, capitalized with Bitcoin owned by the federal government, are massively bullish news and will have a positive impact on the industry. Their effects simply need time. After all, Bitcoin didn’t cross $100,000 the day after the ETF announcement, right?

A lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt has arisen since bitcoin lost crucial support at our range lows around $90,000 and the Fear and Greed Index shows that by currently sitting at 20 points, still signaling extreme fear.

The disappointing performance started on February 21st, when the S&P 500 lost 1,7% in a single day due to fears about economic growth. Traditional markets have been struggling ever since and the S&P so far has lost more than 7%, clearly showing that Bitcoin’s behavior lately is nothing unusual.

I’d like to bring up global liquidity once again here and mention that this forward leading indicator started showing weakness back in October of last year already, Bitcoin just did what it always does and followed Global M2. See, what I’m trying to do here is explain to you that the current weakness in Bitcoin is not concerning and that there are various reasons to explain it.

On top of all of that, you could go through the previous Bitcoin bull runs on your favorite charting software, measure the average corrections yourself and you’d see that frequent 20-30% drawdowns are fairly normal for BTC and just part of the natural volatility.

The coming week will bring several key economic data releases that could influence market volatility. On Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings report will be released, providing insights into labor market dynamics. Wednesday will see the release of the CPI Inflation data, a crucial indicator of consumer price pressures. On Thursday, both the PPI Inflation and Jobless Claims reports will be published, shedding light on wholesale price trends and unemployment claims, respectively. Finally, on Friday, the Consumer Sentiment report will offer a snapshot of consumer confidence.

Global conflicts, like the ongoing trade war and China’s deflation problems are getting worse, leading to uncertainty. Markets are pricing in disruption, while big players reduce their exposure. If bond spreads and treasury volatility keep rising, asset prices will continue to fall, which will likely push the central planners to act.

Institutional behavior is reflected very clearly in Bitcoin ETF flows, which have been negative since mid-February. This again shows, that the current situation is not a result of a collapse in crypto, but rather a reflection of the global financial environment struggling, leading to a temporary de-risking phase.

Today’s chart is slightly zoomed out, offering a different view than usual and also showing the previous trading range we observed in 2024. Don’t be alarmed, I simply want to show you what’s possible and why you don’t need to be concerned just yet. After trading sideways for nearly 9 months in 2024, we broke out sharply in November, shooting up to $108,000 almost in a straight line, without ever retesting resistance, turning it into support and paving the way for a healthy trend. 

Bearish Scenario: I’m sure you see where I’m going with this, but to clarify, I don’t say we need to retest previous resistance at $73,000 before moving higher. What I am saying is that we could dip even further, without any of this actually being concerning. Also, if we measure this huge swing move from the 2024 range lows to the highs at $108,000, the 0.618 Fibonacci support level is coming in right at the 2024 resistance at around $73,000, making it a potential macro reversal level. This would also be where I am looking for long entries. I want you to keep this in mind, just to broaden your horizon and be ready for every possibility. 

Bullish Scenario: In the global M2 chart I shared previously, you can clearly see that global liquidity bottomed out in January and is currently sitting at all-time highs again, just shy of breaking higher. Bitcoin could follow this path very soon, as historically, Bitcoin tracked global M2. If this happens, I’d like to see Bitcoin reclaiming $90,000 as support, possibly consolidating there for a few days to build momentum before moving higher towards the point of control at $96,000. Once that level is reclaimed as well, we can anticipate a move towards the range highs and eventually, all-time highs again.

While traditional markets are struggling, not only Bitcoin follows suit but altcoins do as well. There are occasional outperformers but for now, these are short-lived and altcoins as a whole are still lacking momentum. TOTAL3 is currently retesting major support at around $780B, a crucial level that needs to hold in order to prevent further downside. If the level holds, I’d like to see this index reclaim $850B as support for more safety and less downside potential. Otherwise, $716B is the next key support to watch for a potential bounce, if we lose $850B.

It’s safe to say that altcoins are at a very low point and not just meme coins, but utility tokens as well are not seeing any spotlight right now whatsoever. I view this as an opportunity and am continuing to dollar-cost average (DCA) into promising projects within the Gaming, AI and RWA sectors. Sentiment resets like these are very common for the altcoin Market and we have seen this in previous cycles. After all, the best entries are often provided when FUD is high and prices are low, and the upside potential remains disproportionately large compared to the downside.

I publish a comprehensive deep-dive altcoin market report each Wednesday, where I go over important metrics, various charts and key data, and other influences and indicators in order to provide you with a sharp, updated analysis of the altcoin market. This is designed to give you a real edge in staying ahead of the competition and making well-informed decisions in your day-to-day trading.

As you probably notice, today’s update was different:

This is institutional-grade research, packed with deeper analysis and more valuable insights to help you stay ahead. 

From now on, I’ll continue to set the bar high when it comes to informing you all. 

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead!