As we progress through the cycle, altcoins are consolidating at key support levels, and the next major move is taking shape. In today’s report, we’ll analyze the TOTAL3, OTHERS, OTHERS.D, BTC.D, and OTHERS/BTC charts to assess the current market dynamics and what’s ahead for altcoins.

As always, I’ll also consider relevant macroeconomic factors to provide a comprehensive perspective.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

📊 Altcoin Market Overview: Breaking down TOTAL3 & OTHERS to gauge overall market strength.
🔍 Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Analyzing BTC Dominance (BTC.D) and OTHERS Dominance (OTHERS.D) for clues on rotation.
📈 Key Reversal Signals: Watching OTHERS/BTC for potential altseason triggers.
📅 Macro & Upcoming Catalysts: How major events like the FOMC meeting could impact altcoins.
🚀 Opportunities Ahead: What’s next if momentum picks up and key resistance levels are reclaimed?

Let’s dive in!

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The overall altcoin market is continuing to struggle, after getting rejected at previous all-time highs both in December of last year, and January of this year. The $TOTAL3 chart visualizes this clearly and we can see that just recently we lost another major area of support at around $790B, a level we are currently retesting in a bearish way. The $OTHERS Index is sitting inbetween two areas of interest currently, while also being in a consecutive downtrend since December. 

Bullish Scenario: Reclaim previous support levels and change the current trend structure significantly by staying above said levels. For $TOTAL3 this would mean reclaiming both $790B and $850B without falling below them again. $OTHERS would have to reclaim $240B and preferably $300B in order for me to consider any sustainable upside momentum and a change in trend. 

Bearish Scenario: In a bearish scenario both $TOTAL3 and $OTHERS would face a rejection at current levels and continue their consecutive downtrend until new areas of interest come into play. For $TOTAL3 the levels to watch are $716B and if that doesn’t hold, $650B would be where I’d expect next support to start coming in. $OTHERS has significant support in the area around $190B. 

Generally, „the trend is your friend“ until clearly broken. That’s why in order to be bullish on the altcoin sector, we need to see a significant trend shift across the board.

In order to assess the current situation around dominance of both bitcoin and the altcoin sector, we need to take a look at consecutive Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and OTHERS Dominance (OTHERS.D) Charts. This allows us to easily spot strength or weakness on each sector and lets us predict general market trends. 

Today’s bitcoin dominance chart is overlayed by the Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets (WALCL) in order to see, how external metrics like these can significantly influence the state of crypto. BTC.D has been in a consecutive uptrend since 2021 and has just put in the highest daily candle close this cycle yesterday. This means that bitcoin still has the spotlight and altcoins have not yet started to outperform bitcoin, something we’d usually see in post-halving years. 

If we take a loot at last cycle, BTC.D has been in a similar uptrend and did not actually top out until the Federal Reserve started quantitative easing and pivoted its balance sheet policy. There has been a lot of speculation regarding whether or not QE has to kick in before we can see a similar trend shift, but Jerome Powell recently announced that the Fed will not use QE as a tool, unless interest rates are at zero. This is almost certainly not going to happen this cycle and hence this discussion is completely cornered.

What’s potentially coming up though is the end of quantitative tightening which means the fed stops reducing their balance sheet. The Fed recently mentioned in the Fed Minutes that survey respondents on average saw the process of runoff concluding by mid-2025. Whether or not this will be enough to induce a significant market trend shift in crypto remains to be seen, I consider it likely. 

So while we can expect BTC.D to continue its uptrend in the meantime, it’s unsure whether OTHERS.D continues lower or consolidates at this point. In a bullish case, we’d see a reclaim of the golden historical trend line, however I’d consider this likely once the situation around the Fed’s definitive decision on balance sheet policy gets more certain. 

The last chart I’d like to cover today is OTHERS/BTC. This metric has been very useful in the past and has very easily noted the start of each previous altseason with a simple reaction off to the historical golden trend line.

We have closed the previous month’s candle above said trend line, leaving a big wick. It’s crucial in my opinion that the current monthly candle manages to close above the trend line as well, as otherwise this historical indicator would likely be considered invalidated. 

If a bounce occurs this or the following month, we’re likely about to see a very strong and sustainable rally coming after for altcoins across the board, expected to last for multiple months. It’s crucial to be positioned in well-performing altcoins during that period, in order to really take advantage of the arising opportunities. 

The next major upcoming catalysts are going to be CPI inflation data today and both PPI inflation and Unemployment claims tomorrow. These events are expected to drive market volatility for the remainder of the week. My tip: Follow Swiss Circle Traders' insights on these volatile days to stay sharp and make the right decisions.

The next significant fundamental influence for the crypto sector is likely going to be the FOMC meeting next week. During this meeting, the Fed will not only announce its interest rate decision but also provide insights into its balance sheet policy and whether it plans to conclude asset reduction.

While Inflation concerns remain elevated and this week’s data will be crucial, markets currently price in a 97% probability of no rate cuts, according to FedWatch. The end of quantitative tightening likely has to wait for at least the May meeting as well, given current trends involving the overnight reverse repo program.

The RRP has been shrinking rapidly, indicating that excess liduidity is nearly drained. However, the fed typically waits for signs of stress in money markets such as rising repo rates or a significant drop in bank reserves before halting QT. 

While altcoins remain undervalued, sentiment is low and FUD is elevated, I still expect to see significant momentum picking up later this year. Memecoins have been draining liquidity from the Crypto sector for a long time now, but even they have started to struggle, experiencing the biggest declines in 2025. There are few occasional outperformers but the overall market is performing unexpectedly weak. 

This sets the stage for unique opportunities and outstanding risk to reward potential. I continue to dollar cost average into promising utility-driven projects and coins with real value and product, as I expect RWA, Gaming and AI to take the spotlight once momentum returns and liquidity begins flowing back into altcoins. 

On Friday we’ll be diving into Solana, Ethereum and XRP with dedicated analysis. Make sure to sign up so you don’t miss out if you’re following these coins.

I hope this brief update has helped clarify the key developments and outlined what to watch for, so you can make informed decisions moving forward.

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