Markets opened the week with a geopolitical jolt. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed by 70%, insurers pulled war-risk coverage, and crude surged more than 15% as Washington moved to escort vessels through the waterway. 

Inside today’s report, we break down the macro shockwaves, crypto structure, and relative strength signals shaping this pivotal moment. You’ll find 12 charts including defined Bitcoin long and short setups, plus a high-conviction Chart of the Week with actionable levels and risk management guidance.

Let’s dive in 👇

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The map of tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz on February 28th captures the moment global energy markets changed. Traffic through the strait dropped 70%, with tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf and leading insurers scrapping war-risk coverage entirely. Four days into the conflict, only a handful of small tankers have crossed, while the large oil tankers that carry the bulk of global supply are avoiding it altogether.

Washington is now moving to force the strait back open. Trump announced the Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz immediately, a direct response to Iran's IRGC threatening to set any crossing vessel on fire. Analysts warn that even with escorts in place, full resumption of flows will likely take weeks, as the military first needs to suppress Iran's capacity to mine the waterway and deploy anti-ship missiles and drones, a timeline that markets are watching closely.

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That uncertainty is driving the dollar's largest two-day gain in nearly a year, Treasury yields sharply higher, and crude up over 15% since the strikes began. What makes this week particularly striking for crypto observers is that Bitcoin has decisively bucked the traditional risk-off playbook, surging from $65,500 to over $71,000 even as the dollar rallied and equities wobbled. The move suggests institutional players are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge again, moving closer to gold's role than to tech stocks. This is a notable reversal of the trend that defined the preceding weeks.

Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 forecasts remain unmoved, and Bitcoin's sharp move higher this week only reinforces the sense that longer-term bulls are treating this as a temporary shock rather than a structural break. That said, with nine guided-missile warships deployed to the Arabian Sea and the IRGC still threatening vessel crossings, the situation remains live and fluid.

The single variable controlling everything right now is how fast the strait reopens. A swift resolution keeps the oil spike transitory, cools the dollar, and gives Bitcoin room to push toward and potentially through the $75,000 level that bulls have been eyeing. A prolonged closure is the real test, if BTC can hold its gains even as crude pushes toward triple digits and the Fed stays frozen, the geopolitical hedge narrative will have earned its credibility in a way no amount of institutional research reports could.

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Bitcoin held above $65,500 and bounced sharply on Monday, pushing to $70,000 before pulling back to $66,000. From there, a second surge is now underway, with Bitcoin currently trading at $71,500 and closing in on our target and take-profit level of $72,000.