Markets remain at an important turning point as institutional capital continues flowing out of crypto while traditional markets prove remarkably resilient. Record Bitcoin ETF outflows, easing oil prices, and a strong second quarter for equities paint a stark contrast between asset classes, with digital assets continuing to struggle under a higher-rate, risk-off macro environment.

Inside today’s report, you'll find 12 charts covering Bitcoin's continued consolidation near major support, evolving capital rotation between Bitcoin and altcoins, and a tactical Chart of the Week featuring a high-probability setup at a key technical level.

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Bitcoin ETFs just had their worst month on record, with US spot funds bleeding roughly $4.5 billion in June as Bitcoin fell over 20%, its steepest monthly drop since 2022. Rising Treasury yields and a broad risk-off shift drove the exodus, erasing the entire year's net inflows and signaling that institutional appetite for crypto has hit a wall.

That risk-off mood was itself born from the Iran war, which also created the quarter's most dramatic reversal in oil. Brent spiked from $70 to above $115 per barrel when the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February, but a ceasefire framework has since unwound the entire war premium, with crude now back to pre-conflict levels.

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Falling oil is precisely what powered equities to an extraordinary quarter. The S&P 500 gained 14.9% in Q2, its best quarter since the COVID rebound of 2020, as cheaper energy eased inflation fears and gave AI-driven corporate earnings room to run. It was a rare case of geopolitical risk failing to derail the market.

That rally is now consolidating. The S&P 500 recently tested its 50-day moving average at 7,371 before recovering to 7,414, a normal breather, but a level that must hold. A break lower would be a meaningful warning sign, especially given how narrow the quarter's leadership was.

The half-year scorecard: equities won, oil normalized, and crypto lost. With Q2 earnings season beginning mid-July, the market's next verdict on whether this resilience is durable arrives very soon.

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Bitcoin retested the $58,300 technical support level again on Tuesday and moved briefly higher before pulling back once more. Price is currently trading around $58,700, just above support, and therefore remains range-bound. The next key resistance remains at $60,700 until a breakout in either direction occurs.