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Hey there, and happy Friday!
This week, U.S. labor data painted a clear picture of slowdown. Initial jobless claims surged to 237,000, the highest since June, while job openings fell to a 10-month low. Markets are now pricing a 99% probability of a September Fed rate cut, with some calling it “a lock” and even raising the odds of a 50 bps move.
The dollar has already weakened on soft labor prints, historically a tailwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield collapsed to 3.5%, its lowest in nearly a year, showing conviction that the Fed’s tightening cycle is done. Meanwhile, longer-term yields remain elevated, highlighting fiscal risks and inflation concerns, a backdrop where Bitcoin’s hedge narrative shines.
Here’s what we’ll cover today:
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: Labor market weakness all but confirms a September rate cut, pushing the dollar lower and Treasury yields sharply down. Liquidity conditions are turning favorable for crypto, even as long-term risks remain.
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: BTC reclaimed $111,900 support this morning after bouncing from $109,400, with upside targets at $113,400 and beyond. ETF flows remain mixed, and liquidation clusters hint at volatility.
📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: ETH holds $4,242 but faces rejection at $4,459, with weak ETF demand this week signaling headwinds. Structure vs BTC stays intact, and heatmaps show key liquidation clusters just above $4,500.
🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: SOL continues consolidating around $206, holding firm but struggling to break higher. With liquidation clusters above $220 and below $193, volatility looks set to increase.
Let’s dive in 👇
🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview:
Initial jobless claims surged to 237,000 in late August, the highest since June, underscoring weakness beneath headline labor data. Markets now see a 99% probability of a September Fed rate cut, according to FedWatch, with some analysts calling it “a lock” and even suggesting a possible 50 bps move. Today’s August jobs report is the final confirmation point, making it the most important release before the Fed’s September meeting.
US Initial Jobless Claims Climb to Highest Since June (Source: Bloomberg)
The dollar has already weakened after soft JOLTS job openings, which dropped to 7.18M in July, a 10-month low. This signals the labor market is cooling more decisively, reducing the Fed’s urgency to stay restrictive. A softer dollar has historically been the main driver of risk assets like Bitcoin, supporting our view that alternative assets will strengthen as policy shifts toward accommodation.
Dollar Declines on Report US Jobs Openings Fell (Source: Bloomberg)
At the same time, the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.5%, its lowest in nearly a year. This reflects markets pricing in multiple cuts through 2025. Lower short-term rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while signaling easier financial conditions ahead. The speed of this move shows growing conviction that the Fed’s tightening cycle is over.
Treasury Two-Year Yield Hits Lowest in About a Year (Source: Bloomberg)
Finally, the divergence between short- and long-term yields is widening. The 2-year has collapsed on rate-cut expectations, while the 30-year remains elevated due to fiscal and inflation risks. This “bear steepening” dynamic underscores how markets expect near-term easing, but remain wary of long-term imbalances.
Long- and Short-Term Yields Move in Different Directions (Source: Bloomberg)
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin looks increasingly attractive as a hedge against both monetary debasement and fiscal uncertainty.
We’re now entering the crypto analysis section, where we break down Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, complete with actionable trading setups for the weekend.
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