Markets open the week still grappling with the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Brent crude spiked above $120 intraday before pulling back to around $106, keeping oil volatility front and center. Each day without tanker traffic tightens physical supply, and Goldman Sachs warns a prolonged closure structurally keeps Brent above $100.

This report breaks down the key dynamics shaping markets this week: energy shocks, macro positioning, and crypto technicals with actionable trade setups for Bitcoin and select altcoins.

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The headline this morning was oil. Brent spiked to $120 in early trading before pulling back sharply to around $106 as of writing, a $14 intraday reversal that tells you markets are still searching for a ceiling. Goldman Sachs has warned that five weeks of sustained closure pushes Brent structurally above $100; we're already there, with no resolution in sight.

Hormuz vessel traffic, which we covered last week, continues to flatline at near-zero with no sign of recovery. Each passing day without tanker movement tightens the physical supply picture further, keeping the market one headline away from retesting this morning's highs.

That oil spike hit Bitcoin immediately. Surging energy prices kill rate-cut expectations, and crypto had been counting on Fed easing as a core tailwind. Bitcoin is down 9.3% from its March 4 close, while gold ETFs absorbed $16 billion in February inflows versus $3.8 billion out of BTC. In a geopolitical shock, and despite last week’s relative strength, Bitcoin continues to trades like a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven.

The dollar tells the same story in reverse, holding near multi-week highs on haven demand and sticky inflation expectations. A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions further and compounds the pressure already radiating from elevated oil prices. Equities confirm the risk-off tone, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from cycle highs, tech hardest hit given its rate sensitivity. 

Bottom line: until Hormuz shows credible signs of reopening, oil stays volatile, rate-cut hopes stay pressured, and risk assets stay on the defensive.

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Sentiment remains in the gutter. The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 13, extreme fear, and while that is marginally better than the all-time low of 5 hit earlier this month, it still reflects a market where the overwhelming majority of participants are either scared, defensive, or simply not paying attention.

ETF flows are backing that up with real money. The week started encouragingly with back-to-back inflow days, but Friday wiped out the progress as $348M walked out the door, the largest single-day outflow of the week. AUM dropped to $93B as a result, giving back nearly all of last week's recovery.

That push-pull dynamic is the key takeaway. Money is not leaving in panic, but it is not staying with conviction either. Institutional players are dipping their toes in and pulling back the moment conditions deteriorate, which is not the behavior of a market that has found its bottom. A sustained run of positive weekly flows is the minimum bar needed before any rally deserves to be taken seriously.

The conflict entered its second week with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight. Israeli strikes hit over 400 targets inside Iran over the weekend, Iran has rejected all ceasefire calls, and the US service member death toll has now reached seven. The Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-total halt, and every piece of macro data this week will be read through the lens of a war economy.

Tuesday brings February Existing Home Sales, a secondary data point, but worth watching as a baseline read on how the housing market stood before oil re-accelerated. Wednesday's February CPI is the week's first major test, with headline and core both expected at 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY. That was already slightly above last month's reading before oil surged past $80, a hotter print would effectively rule out Fed rate cuts this year while the economy absorbs an energy shock simultaneously.

Friday is the heaviest session, with Q4 2025 GDP, January PCE, and January JOLTS all landing together. These prints will tell us whether the US economy entered this conflict from a position of strength or one already softening, and a combination of weak growth and sticky inflation would be the clearest stagflation signal yet.

Strong data would normally support risk assets, but with oil targeting $90 and no ceasefire on the horizon, fundamentals can be overridden in a single headline. Treat every release as a secondary input this week, the war remains the only variable that truly matters.

Bitcoin sold off throughout the week after reaching $74,000 on Sunday. It retested the $72,000 technical level but failed to hold above it, falling back below on Thursday and selling off to $65,500 by late Sunday. Bitcoin has since bounced from that level and is currently trading at $67,600.

The two-week liquidation heatmap shows leverage clusters concentrated primarily on the downside, with liquidations densest between $60,000 and $65,000. Upside liquidations were largely cleared out by the mid-week push to $74,000, leaving only minimal clusters above last week's highs around $74,200.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin holds $65,500, with longs attractive on a bullish retest of that level targeting $72,000, invalidated on a loss of it. A clean reclaim of $72,000 opens further longs on retest, targeting $74,400 then $78,300.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin breaks and fails to reclaim $65,500, with shorts on a confirmed bearish retest targeting $60,700, invalidated on a reclaim. A break below $60,700 opens further downside targeting $58,400, similarly invalidated on a reclaim of the broken level.

TOTAL3 mirrored Bitcoin's path, surging to $732B on Wednesday before retreating sharply and falling back to the $695B technical level by late Sunday. It has since recovered slightly and is currently holding at $702B, still above that key support. The next meaningful target to the upside sits at $743B.

ETH/BTC continues to drift sideways in a compressed range just below the 0.0299 technical level. Near-term support sits between 0.0285–0.0290, with the next meaningful technical floor at 0.0260. A reclaim of 0.0299 would open the door toward 0.03255.

Investor Implications: TOTAL3 holding above $695B is an encouraging sign. However, with ETH/BTC unable to reclaim 0.0299, Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin on a relative basis, meaning altcoin exposure remains a higher-risk proposition until that ratio shows a clear directional break. Investors rotating into alts should watch the $695B TOTAL3 floor as the key line in the sand, a loss of that level would signal broader altcoin weakness and argue for tightening exposure until the structure improves.

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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