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Liquidity conditions are no longer tightening, but they aren’t meaningfully expanding either, leaving risk assets in a transition phase.

Today’s report cuts through the macro noise with 14 charts, delivering a clear, actionable outlook on what actually matters for trading.

The crypto section dives deep into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups for each asset to help you navigate the weekend ahead.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

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The Fed’s balance sheet has stabilized around $6.6 trillion after shrinking from pandemic peaks above $8 trillion, signaling the end of quantitative tightening, but not yet a return to expansion. This matters for crypto because balance sheet growth is liquidity fuel: when the Fed buys bonds, fresh money enters the system and tends to flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The shift from active drainage to maintenance removes a key headwind, but crypto bulls still need to see the balance sheet turn higher for true tailwinds to return.

At the same time, Fed hawkishness has jumped to its highest level since April. That creates short-term headwinds for capital flows, supporting the dollar and pressuring assets that benefit from easy money. Bitcoin and altcoins perform best when real rates fall and liquidity expands. Conditions are moving in that direction, but not there yet, which helps explain why crypto has struggled to sustain strength.

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Japan adds another layer of complexity. A Bloomberg survey shows 48% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates in July, a scenario we covered closely in recent weeks. BOJ hikes strengthen the yen and unwind carry trades funded in cheap yen. The six-month runway gives markets time to adjust, but any acceleration toward April or surprise hikes could trigger global stress, similar to what we saw in August 2024.

Yet risk appetite is clearly stirring. Small-caps just logged a historic 10-day winning streak versus large-caps, the longest since 2008. Rotations from blue-chip safety into volatile small-caps signal aggressive risk-taking, behavior that often spills over into crypto as investors search for asymmetric upside. This suggests capital could soon look beyond equities toward Bitcoin and digital assets, despite Fed hawkishness and developments in Japan.

The macro picture is mixed: liquidity has stopped draining but isn’t meaningfully expanding, central banks remain cautious, yet risk appetite is re-emerging.

Navigating this environment as a retail investor requires precise data and structure, which sets the stage for the crypto section, covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana with key charts, metrics, and actionable long and short setups for each asset for the weekend ahead.