Markets are entering a more fragile phase as geopolitical tensions escalate, the dollar strengthens on renewed risk aversion, and oil prices surge sharply higher. At the same time, bond market volatility remains unusually suppressed, masking underlying risks as inflation pressures build beneath the surface.

This week’s report breaks down these crosscurrents with 14 detailed charts covering geopolitical risk transmission, dollar strength, and the growing impact of the energy shock. The crypto section dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups with defined entry points, targets, and invalidation levels.

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Tehran seized two ships in the strait on Wednesday, escalating tensions after Trump extended a ceasefire indefinitely with no sign of peace talks restarting. Markets reacted immediately: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index spiked to 1,201 before settling at 1,199, a clear flight-to-safety move. The move was sharp but contained, suggesting markets are pricing ongoing tension rather than acute escalation.

What makes the current environment especially unusual is how calm the bond market has remained throughout all of this. The US 10-year Treasury yield is on track for its tightest monthly trading range since December 2020. The bond market appears to be pricing two forces that cancel each other out: a slowing economy pulling yields down, and sticky energy-driven inflation keeping rate cuts off the table. The result is an eerie stillness that may not last.

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Brent has now surged over 60% since December, briefly touching $107 again yesterday before easing back toward $100. Even traders who believe a deal is close are reluctant to short oil here: experts warn that even an imminent agreement would take months to unwind the supply damage, keeping prices elevated well beyond any ceasefire.

In crypto, the Trump-linked trade continues to unwind. American Bitcoin and Alt5 Sigma, once up hundreds of percent relative to Bitcoin, have now given back nearly everything. American Bitcoin did catch a 12% bounce yesterday after deploying 11,300 new mining rigs, but the longer-term picture is clear: politically-themed proxies have badly underperformed plain Bitcoin, which has itself only drifted modestly lower.

Bottom line: The dollar is flashing caution, oil is screaming it, and the unwind of Trump crypto ventures is a reminder that momentum without fundamentals is a trade, not an investment. Don't confuse low bond volatility with low risk. The energy shock is still real, inflation pressure is building, and the dollar knows it.