Escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy flows further, pushing crude above $80 and driving US yields higher as markets began pricing renewed inflation risks. Yet in a surprising twist, Bitcoin surged nearly 8% during the escalation, outperforming gold and challenging its traditional role as the market’s primary crisis hedge.

This week’s report breaks down these crosscurrents with 14 detailed charts covering the geopolitical escalation. The crypto section dives into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining precise long and short setups with defined entry points, targets, and invalidation levels.

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The dominant story this week is one we flagged on Wednesday, and it has since escalated further. WTI crude has surged past $80, dragging the US 2-year Treasury yield back up toward 3.60% alongside it, because the Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down. Iran achieved this not with a naval blockade but with drone strikes that led insurers and shipping companies to deem the passage too dangerous, a modern energy disruption that requires no conventional warfare to be devastating.

The Hormuz traffic chart makes the speed of that collapse impossible to ignore. Vessel transits went from roughly 50 per day on February 26 to near zero by March 3, a near-total halt in under a week. What makes this particularly dangerous for markets is that a supply-driven oil spike forces the Fed into an impossible position: inflation rises, but not because the economy is strong.

Yet in that environment, one asset has thrived unexpectedly. Bitcoin is up nearly 8% since the conflict began, while gold is essentially flat, a striking divergence for what is traditionally the go-to geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin's initial reaction was a sharp drop, followed by a violent reversal higher, suggesting traders increasingly view it as a short-horizon crisis hedge that moves faster and more aggressively than gold. Whether that reflects a genuine shift in Bitcoin's safe-haven status or simply a crowded short being squeezed is still being debated, but the short-term outperformance is hard to dismiss.

Equities, meanwhile, are sending a clearer signal. The S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day moving average at 6,905 and is now pressing against the 100-day at 6,836, a level that held as reliable support throughout the entire 2025 bull run. With Iran ruling out negotiations and oil threatening to push above $90, the next meaningful floor sits around 6,700 before the 200-day moving average comes into play.

The bottom line: one closed strait is now repricing virtually every major asset class simultaneously. Resolution would likely spark a sharp relief rally. Prolonged closure raises the spectre of $100 oil, a stagflation-trapped Fed, and significantly lower equity prices. Watch crude, it is setting the price of everything right now.

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Bitcoin trended higher throughout the week, holding above the key $65,500 support level after retesting it on Monday. Price then grinded higher, reaching the $72,000 target on Wednesday afternoon and briefly tapping $74,000 before pulling back below $72,000 into the close.