This week brought significant movements across crypto and traditional markets, driven by macroeconomic shifts, ETF flows, and technical factors. Here’s a structured breakdown of what’s happening and what to watch next.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

🌍 Market Recap & Macro Overview: Quick recap of crypto & traditional markets this week, also covering key macroeconomic factors affecting risk assets.

📉 Bitcoin (BTC) Breakdown: Key support & resistance zones for the weekend. ETF flows & their impact on BTC’s price action. Liquidation heatmaps: Where the next squeeze could happen.

📊 Ethereum (ETH) Outlook: Is Ethereum showing strength or lagging compared to Bitocin? Key technical levels & breakout setups.

🚀 Solana (SOL) Analysis: SOL’s trend structure compared to BTC & ETH. Crucial levels for continuation or correction.

Let’s dive in!

As an analyst at Swiss Circle, I have the privilege of working alongside some of the top traders and investors in the cryptocurrency space.

Together, we share insights, research, and strategies that help guide our community through the ever-evolving crypto markets.

If you're looking for more in-depth analysis and a collaborative network, I encourage you to check out Swiss Circle and join the conversation.

Both traditional markets and crypto have seen a rough past week, despite U.S. inflation data and jobless claims coming in better than expected. Wall Street is reacting to mounting trade decisions and while Trump continues to push for aggressive tariffs, the economy could spiral into a recession.

The stock market is feeling the impact, with a brutal sell-off taking place: The S&P 500 has now gone 15 straight sessions without posting back-to-back gains, a clear sign of investor uncertainty. 

Some of the largest companies in the world like Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Google, and Meta are seeing heavy losses with nearly $6 trillion in market value erased. This is dragging down not only the tech sector, but the entire market.

Amidst all uncertainty, investors are fleeing to safe-heaven assets. Gold thrives in times of economic uncertainty and is nearing $3,000 an ounce, its highest level in history. It’s a hedge against market instability, and right now, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Meanwhile, crypto remains highly volatile, struggling to gain the same kind of safe-haven status.

Bitcoin is continuing its downtrend after shortly surging on surprising inflation data, currently trading at $82,600. In Monday’s market report, I explained in the bearish scenario that we could continue this trend until we reach last year’s major resistance level at around $73,000 before being a major bounce and potential trend reversal. Said level also coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the last major swing move, a strong trend reversal level. 

The Bitcoin spot ETF flows continue to be consecutively negative, signaling strong selling pressure and continued market weakness.

A potential sign of short-term relief for bitcoin is the liquidation heat map which has its major liquidation cluster currently at $100,000. I advise caution here though, as the amount of leverage is rather low, indicating potential for heightened volatility. 

Bullish scenario: I’d like to see a clear break of structure with a move that manages not only to break out of the current bearish trend, but ideally reclaims $92,000. Entering our previous trading range is crucial and this would make me gain confidence and expect bullish momentum to remain powerful, indicating sustainable uptrend potential. 

Bearish scenario: In a bearish scenario I’d see us contuing our current down trend. This is rather likely for now in my opinion, as general market sentiment remains low and uncertainty high. In that case, expect Bitcoin to continue lower until reaching at least our first target of $73’000. There, we can expect a bounce and a potential trend reversal to happen. 

Ethereum is currently continuing its downtrend despite taking out last year’s lows. Weakness is showing not only on its dollar pair, but also compared to Bitcoin, where we have been in a consecutive downtrend since December 2021.

An interesting theory here suggests that we will not see significant and sustainable bullish momentum and Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin until it retests the bear market lows on ETH/BTC at around 0,016.

Bullish scenario: In order to be bullish on ethereum, I’d like to see a reclaim of the value area high at $2,165 and break of the consecutive bearish structure, this would offer us potential long entries. To confirm bullish momentum and a potential trend reversal to be taking place, we need to reclaim $3,000. Until then, any significant outperformance of bitcoin remains unlikely.

Also, it remains to be seen whether or not we see a retest of bear market lows on the bitcoin pair until then, keep in mind though, that ETH/BTC can drop, when $ETH remains stable but Bitcoin rises in value.

Bearish scenario: A level I’d like to keep an eye on is the point of control at $1,600. Should we continue the current bearish trend. I consider this bearish continuation likely but also expect said level to act as support and lead to a relief bounce, potentially leading to a trend reversal. Short trades can be entered if we retest the value area high at $2,165. again, but fail to reclaim it.

Solana has retraced all of last year’s gains after getting rejected at the local highs for the second time in January, but compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana is currently facing major support at around $125 and showing a generally strong chart structure. The SOL/BTC pair has been in a sideways range for the entire past year but broke below and just recently retested previous support at around 0,0019, turning it into resistance and indicating further underperformance compared to bitcoin.

Bullish scenario: Given that Solana is currently sitting at a higher timeframe support level, a bounce here seems rather likely. However, in order to be bullish and anticipate further upside, I’d like to see the current downtrend broken and reclaim the level of $150 and turning it into support again. This would offer us with favorable risk-reward opportunities for longs. In order to confirm the trend reversal and anticipate sustainable bullish momentum, I’d like to see us reclaim $180 in a later stage. 

Bearish scenario: In a bearish case we probably lose current support at $125 and continue lower, following the current bearish trend. This would provide us with short opportunities on a bearish retest of our current support level. Next major support would be the psychological level of $100 and after that at around $78. I could see this potentially play out even if we get a bounce here in the short term. 

I hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

If you want to stay ahead of the curve with in-depth analysis and real-time updates, make sure to subscribe to our email newsletter - you won’t want to miss what’s coming next!

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic weekend! 🚀

Stay ahead of the curve with Sandman Research.