Markets head into the final stretch of Q1 under sustained pressure, with Bitcoin locked between $65,500 support and $72,000 resistance, unable to reclaim the $80,000 level that defined last year’s structure. At the same time, equities are flashing warning signals with five consecutive weekly losses, recession probabilities are rising sharply, and geopolitical tensions continue to drive inflationary pressures through higher energy prices.

This report breaks down the key dynamics shaping markets this week: a fragile macro backdrop, deeply suppressed sentiment, and Bitcoin consolidating at critical levels with clear directional triggers for the next major move.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

Let’s dive in 👇

Please note that due to the Easter holiday falling on both Friday, April 3rd and Monday, April 6th, we will not be publishing our usual reports on either of those days.

We will resume our regular publishing schedule on Wednesday, April 8th.

We wish all of our readers a restful and enjoyable Easter break.

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Bitcoin is clinging to the $65,500–72,000 range to close Q1, trapped between the $80,000 level that served as a floor for most of 2025 and the critical $60,000 support below. The chart is unambiguous, BTC fell hard from its $130,000 September peak and has not recovered. Reclaiming $80,000 is the minimum required to shift the trend; losing $60,000 risks a cascading selloff.

That same pressure is hammering equities. The S&P 500 just logged its fifth straight weekly loss, the longest streak since 2022, as surging oil prices and recession fears (Moody's now puts the odds near 50%) weigh on sentiment. Five down weeks in a row is a rare and serious signal, and the resolution will hinge almost entirely on whether geopolitical tensions ease enough to bring energy costs back down.

A related flashpoint continues building in Japan. The yen has crossed 160 per dollar, precisely the level that triggered multi-trillion-yen interventions in 2024, and Tokyo's Finance Minister is already issuing pointed public warnings. If Japan acts again, the resulting yen spike could force a violent unwind of carry trades, sending shockwaves across every major asset class simultaneously.

Completing the picture, U.S. Treasury yields tell a stagflation story. The 10-year climbed all month on inflation fears, then dropped sharply in the final days of March as recession fears took over, bond markets being pulled in two directions at once. That tension between rising prices and slowing growth is the hardest macro environment to navigate.

The takeaway is simple: equities, crypto, bonds, and currencies are all deteriorating together, and the common thread is a geopolitical shock that is pushing inflation up and growth down at the same time. Until there is meaningful de-escalation, treat any rally as a relief bounce, not a turning point.

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Sentiment has made no meaningful progress toward recovery. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 8, barely distinguishable from the readings that have defined the mood since January. In that entire stretch, there has been only one attempt to climb out of extreme fear and back into fear territory, and it failed to hold. That kind of persistent suppression is notable not just for its depth, but for its duration. Markets can absorb short spells of panic; what this represents is something more structural in how participants are currently positioned and thinking.

The ETF flow data reinforces that picture emphatically. Last week ended on a particularly weak note, with Friday's outflows not just continuing the trend but accelerating it, $225 million left the products in a single session, capping what was already a negative week. The cumulative effect was significant: total AUM dropped sharply from roughly $95B earlier in the week to $87B by the close. That is not a gradual drift. It reflects active repositioning out of exposure, and the fact that selling intensified into the end of the week suggests there was little appetite to hold over the weekend.

Taken together, these two data points paint a consistent picture. Sentiment is not simply low, it has been low for months and is showing no credible signs of turning. Institutional flow behaviour is not hesitant or mixed; it is directionally negative, with the largest outflow day arriving at the end of the week. Until either of those dynamics shifts in a sustained way, the data does not support a constructive read on near-term demand.

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A critical macro week ahead, with an already fragile backdrop. The latest labor data came in weak: February showed a loss of 92,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 60,000, while December and January were revised lower by a combined 69,000. This points to a softening labor market, and this week’s data will be key in confirming whether that trend is continuing.

Monday’s Powell speech sets the tone. With the Fed holding rates steady while balancing slowing growth against inflation risks driven by geopolitics, any hints about the future rate path could move markets quickly.

Tuesday brings Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings. Job openings have already fallen significantly in recent months, so this release will show whether demand for labor is continuing to weaken.

Friday is the key event: the March jobs report. Expectations are for around +57,000 jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.4%.

One important detail: the report is released on Good Friday, when markets are closed. That means markets will only react on Monday, creating potential weekend headline risk. A weaker-than-expected report would strengthen recession concerns, while a stronger print could challenge the idea that the labor market is deteriorating quickly.

Bitcoin fell sharply on Friday, reaching the $65,500 technical support level where it managed to hold over the weekend. Following a second retest of that level in early Monday trading, price has since recovered and is currently trading at $67,700, remaining within the established range with no breakout forming in either direction.

The two-week liquidation heatmap shows Bitcoin having cleared most of the downside liquidity clustered around $65,000 before bouncing higher. The most significant remaining liquidation clusters are now positioned to the upside, concentrated right at the $72,000 technical level, making it a plausible near-term target for early price action this week.

Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin holds $65,500, with long entries becoming attractive on a bullish retest of that level, targeting $72,000 and invalidated on a loss of the entry level. A clean reclaim and sustained hold of $72,000 opens further long opportunities on retest, with the next target at $74,400.

Bearish Scenario: Bitcoin fails to reclaim $72,000, with short entries valid on a confirmed bearish retest of that level, targeting $65,500 and invalidated on a reclaim above it. A decisive break below $65,500 opens further downside toward $60,700, similarly invalidated on a reclaim of the broken level.

TOTAL3 precisely mirrored Bitcoin's path, trending lower decisively since Wednesday and retesting the key technical support level at $695B, before recovering in the past few hours. The metric currently sits at $710B, with the next meaningful technical target to the upside at $743B. Altcoins continue to track Bitcoin without any sign of decoupling or outperformance, which favors a defensive positioning approach.

ETH/BTC moved largely sideways throughout the past week, but mirroring Bitcoin and TOTAL3, found support at the 0.029 technical level in early Monday trading before recovering. The ratio currently sits at 0.030, a level that has acted as resistance throughout the past week, and has so far been unable to push meaningfully above it.

Investor Implications: The key takeaway from both charts is that altcoins remain fully tethered to Bitcoin, with no independent strength emerging. TOTAL3 bouncing from $695B is constructive, but the recovery needs to clear and hold $743B before it carries any conviction. Similarly, ETH/BTC reclaiming 0.030 is a necessary first step, but the ratio needs to break and hold above that resistance level. Until that happens, investors should maintain a Bitcoin-first positioning and treat altcoin exposure as a secondary consideration. 

We hope this report provided you with valuable insights into the latest market developments and geopolitical shifts.

As always, stay informed, stay prepared, and have a fantastic week ahead! 🚀

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